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A Hawkes process on $\R$ is a point process whose intensity function at time $t$ is a functional of its past activity before time $t$. It is defined by its activation function $\Phi$ and its memory function $h$. In this paper, the Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Philippe Robert , Gaëtan Vignoud

We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K\le N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-20 Chenguang Liu

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

We determine the large size limit of a network of interacting Hawkes Processes on an adaptive network. The flipping of the node variables is taken to have an intensity given by the mean-field of the afferent edges and nodes. The flipping of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-15 James MacLaurin

In this article, we fill a gap in the literature regarding quantitative functional central limit theorems (qfCLT) for Hawkes processes by providing an upper bound for the convergence of a nearly unstable Hawkes process toward a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-16 Laure Coutin , Benjamin Massat , Anthony Réveillac

The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-30 Anna Bonnet , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

We prove a functional central limit theorem for partial sums of symmetric stationary long range dependent heavy tailed infinitely divisible processes with a certain type of negative dependence. Previously only positive dependence could be…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-07 Paul Jung , Takashi Owada , Gennady Samorodnitsky

This paper aims to establish a central limit theorem for Markov processes conditioned not to be absorbed under a very general assumption on quasi-stationarity for the underlying process. To do so, a central limit theorem has been…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-31 William Oçafrain

In this paper, we establish a central limit theorem for a large class of general supercritical superprocesses with spatially dependent branching mechanisms satisfying a second moment condition. This central limit theorem generalizes and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-22 Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Rui Zhang

We give functional laws of large numbers for a class of marked Hawkes processes and marked compound Hawkes processes with a general mark space. Our results provide some complement to those presented previously in the literature. As an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz iewȩgłowski , Anatoliy Swishchuk

We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Zoé Agathe-Nerine

In this paper we establish spatial central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes with general spatial-dependent branching mechanisms. These are generalizations of the spatial central limit theorems…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Y. -X. Ren , R. Song , R. Zhang

A functional limit theorem is established for the partial-sum process of a class of stationary sequences which exhibit both heavy tails and long-range dependence. The stationary sequence is constructed using multiple stochastic integrals…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-09 Shuyang Bai , Takashi Owada , Yizao Wang

A cluster representation for a Hawkes process with renewal immigration is obtained. The centre and satellite processes are indicated as a renewal process and generalized branching processes respectively. It is confirmed that the proposed…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz , Kouji Yano

In this paper, we study various new Hawkes processes, namely, so-called general compound and regime-switching general compound Hawkes processes to model the price processes in the limit order books. We prove Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-29 Anatoliy Swishchuk

The stability condition for Hawkes processes and their non-linear extensions usually relies on the condition that the mean intensity is a finite constant. It follows that the total endogeneity ratio needs to be strictly smaller than unity.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-14 Cecilia Aubrun , Michael Benzaquen , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

We study the continuous time limit of a self-exciting negative binomial process and discuss the critical properties of its intensity distribution. In this limit, the process transforms into a marked Hawkes process. The probability mass…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-24 Kotaro Sakuraba , Wataru Kurebayashi , Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori
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