Related papers: Lag length identification for VAR models with non-…
Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
Identifying the number of lags to include in an autoregressive model remains an open research problem due to the computational burden of treating it as a hyperparameter, especially in complex models. This study explores model-agnostic…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
Motivated by a variety of applications, high-dimensional time series have become an active topic of research. In particular, several methods and finite-sample theories for individual stable autoregressive processes with known lag have…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information…
Regression models fitted to data can be assessed on their goodness of fit, though models with many parameters should be disfavored to prevent over-fitting. Statisticians' tools for this are little known to physical scientists. These include…
Linear Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models where the innovations could be unconditionally heteroscedastic and serially dependent are considered. The volatility structure is deterministic and quite general, including breaks or trending…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…
Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
We consider the estimation of the state transition matrix in vector autoregressive models, when time sequence data is limited but nonsequence steady-state data is abundant. To leverage both sources of data, we formulate the least squares…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…
Predicting how materials behave under realistic conditions requires understanding the statistical distribution of atomic configurations on crystal lattices, a problem central to alloy design, catalysis, and the study of phase transitions.…
The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a model selection criterion widely used in practical applications. The AIC is an estimator of the log-likelihood expected value, and measures the discrepancy between the true model and the estimated…
The Pachinko Allocation Machine (PAM) is a deep topic model that allows representing rich correlation structures among topics by a directed acyclic graph over topics. Because of the flexibility of the model, however, approximate inference…
What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…
Penalized likelihood methods with an $\ell_{\gamma}$-type penalty, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, allow us to estimate a parameter and to do variable selection, simultaneously, if $\gamma\in (0,1]$. In this method, it is…
In the application of autoregressive models the order of the model is often estimated using either a sequence of likelihood ratio tests, a likelihood based information criterion, or a residual based test. The properties of such procedures…