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We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…
Information of interest can often only be extracted from data by model fitting. When the functional form of such a model can not be deduced from first principles, one has to make a choice between different possible models. A common approach…
We employ the scenario approach to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on the average inter-sample time (AIST) generated by an unknown PETC system, based on a finite number of samples. We extend the scenario approach to…
Control of nonlinear systems with high levels of uncertainty is practically relevant and theoretically challenging. This paper presents a numerical investigation of an adaptive nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) technique that relies…
In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…
The detection of anomalies in non-stationary time-series streams is a critical but challenging task across numerous industrial and scientific domains. Traditional models, trained offline, suffer significant performance degradation when…
The Bayesian and Akaike information criteria aim at finding a good balance between under- and over-fitting. They are extensively used every day by practitioners. Yet we contend they suffer from at least two afflictions: their penalty…
A bias correction to Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is derived for seemingly unrelated regressions models. The correction is of particular use when the sample size is not much larger than the number of fitted parameters. A…
A novel adaptive identifier is developed for nonlinear time-delay systems composed of linear, Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz components. To begin with, an identifier is designed for uncertain systems with a priori known delay values, and then…
The present study examines the effectiveness of applying Artificial Intelligence methods in an automotive production environment to predict unknown lead times in a non-cycle-controlled production area. Data structures are analyzed to…
In this paper, we address the problem of modeling data with periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series and additive noise. In most cases, the data are processed assuming a noise-free model (i.e., without additive noise), which is not a…
Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…
The Lasso is a popular model selection and estimation procedure for linear models that enjoys nice theoretical properties. In this paper, we study the Lasso estimator for fitting autoregressive time series models. We adopt a double…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
Non-concave penalized maximum likelihood methods, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, are widely used because they not only do parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously but also have a high efficiency as compared to…
The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is commonly used to select a logistic regression model for optimal prediction of a binary response by a specified family of models. It however lacks a convincing method of prescribing a proper family…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…
In this article, we propose the fractional lower order covariance method (FLOC) for estimating the parameters of vector autoregressive process (VAR) of order $p$, $p\geq 1$ with symmetric stable noise. Further, we show the efficiency,…
As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…