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Related papers: Tax evasion dynamics and Zaklan model on Opinion-d…

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Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-05 Jiayao Shao , Tobias Grafke , Robert S. MacKay

We introduce and study a class of models of free fermions hopping between neighbouring sites with random Brownian amplitudes. These simple models describe stochastic, diffusive, quantum, unitary dynamics. We focus on periodic boundary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-04-17 M. Bauer , D. Bernard , T. Jin

Sampling the collective, dynamical fluctuations that lead to nonequilibrium pattern formation requires probing rare regions of trajectory space. Recent approaches to this problem based on importance sampling, cloning, and spectral…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-14 Jiawei Yan , Hugo Touchette , Grant M. Rotskoff

In this work, we consider a multi-population system where the dynamics of each agent evolve according to a system of stochastic differential equations in a general functional setup, determined by the global state of the system. Each agent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Giuseppe D'Onofrio , Anderson Melchor Hernandez

Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-21 Di Zhang , Qiang Niu , Youzhou Zhou

We study the problem of efficient exploration in order to learn an accurate model of an environment, modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). Efficient exploration in this problem requires the agent to identify the regions in which…

We study the noisy voter model using a specific non-linear dependence of the rates that takes into account collective interaction between individuals. The resulting model is solved exactly under the all-to-all coupling configuration and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-10-05 A. F. Peralta , A. Carro , M. San Miguel , R. Toral

Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Azimov Sherkhon , Susana Lopez-Moreno , Eric Dolores-Cuenca , Sieun Lee , Sangil Kim

To improve the routing decisions of individual drivers and the management policies designed by traffic operators, one needs reliable estimates of travel time distributions. Since congestion caused by both recurrent patterns (e.g., rush…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-13 Nikki Levering , Marko Boon , Michel Mandjes

In this paper machine learning and artificial neural network models are proposed for the classification of external noise sources affecting a given quantum dynamics. For this purpose, we train and then validate support vector machine,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-02-17 Stefano Martina , Stefano Gherardini , Filippo Caruso

We study the stationary states of variants of the noisy voter model, subject to fluctuating parameters or external environments. Specifically, we consider scenarios in which the herding-to-noise ratio switches randomly and on different time…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-01 Annalisa Caligiuri , Tobias Galla

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Stella Kombo , Masih Haseli , Skylar X. Wei , Joel W. Burdick

We prove pathwise convergence of the layerwise evolution of tokens in a finite-depth, finite-width transformer model with MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) blocks to a continuous-time stochastic interacting particle system. We also identify the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Andrea Agazzi , Giuseppe Bruno , Eloy Mosig García , Samuele Saviozzi , Marco Romito

We introduce the Multiscale Voter Model (MVM) to investigate clan influence at multiple scale -- family, neighborhood, political party... -- in opinion formation on real complex networks. Clans, consisting of similar nodes, are constructed…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-23 Elisenda Ortiz , M. Ángeles Serrano

We develop a thorough mathematical analysis of the effective Mori-Zwanzig (EMZ) equation governing the dynamics of noise-averaged observables in stochastic differential equations driven by multiplicative Gaussian white noise. Building upon…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-10-27 Yuanran Zhu , Daniele Venturi

Revisiting the continuous-time Mean-Variance (MV) Portfolio Optimization problem, we model the market dynamics with a jump-diffusion process and apply Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques to facilitate informed exploration within the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-11 Yuling Max Chen , Bin Li , David Saunders

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox , Carlos Guestrin

This paper introduces a class of non-linear and continuous-time opinion dynamics model with additive noise and state dependent interaction rates between agents. The model features interaction rates which are proportional to a negative power…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Jae Oh Woo , François Baccelli , Sriram Vishwanath

Designing tax policies that are effective in curbing tax evasion and maximize state revenues requires a rigorous understanding of taxpayer behavior. This work explores the problem of determining the strategy a self-interested, risk-averse…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-30 Nikolaos D. Goumagias , Dimitrios Hristu-Varsakelis , Yannis M. Assael

Based on a system-reservoir model, where the system is nonlinearly coupled to a heat bath and the heat bath is modulated by an external stationary Gaussian noise, we derive the generalized Langevin equation with space dependent friction and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jyotipratim Ray Chaudhuri , Debashis Barik , Suman Kumar Banik