Related papers: Long-term stability of sequential Monte Carlo meth…
We consider the numerical approximation of the filtering problem in high dimensions, that is, when the hidden state lies in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d$ large. For low dimensional problems, one of the most popular numerical procedures for…
Under multiplicative drift and other regularity conditions, it is established that the asymptotic variance associated with a particle filter approximation of the prediction filter is bounded uniformly in time, and the nonasymptotic,…
The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…
We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity,…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
This paper concerns numerical assessment of Monte Carlo error in particle filters. We show that by keeping track of certain key features of the genealogical structure arising from resampling operations, it is possible to estimate variances…
By making use of martingale representations, we derive the asymptotic normality of particle filters in hidden Markov models and a relatively simple formula for their asymptotic variances. Although repeated resamplings result in complicated…
Filter stability is a classical problem in the study of partially observed Markov processes (POMP), also known as hidden Markov models (HMM). For a POMP, an incorrectly initialized non-linear filter is said to be (asymptotically) stable if…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…
Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data.…
In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…
This paper develops a connection between the asymptotic stability of nonlinear filters and a notion of observability. We consider a general class of hidden Markov models in continuous time with compact signal state space, and call such a…
Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…
The embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM) sampling method is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models which was proposed in Neal (2003); Neal et al. (2004) and extended in…
In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods have been a major breakthrough in the field of numerical signal processing for stochastic dynamical state-space systems with partial and noisy observations. However, these methods still present certain…
Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…