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In the following article we consider the time-stability associated to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimate of the backward interpretation of Feynman-Kac Formulae. This is particularly of interest in the context of performing smoothing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 Ajay Jasra

Particle filters (PFs) are recursive Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian tracking and prediction in state space models. This paper addresses continuous-discrete filtering problems, where the hidden state evolves as an It\^o stochastic…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-24 Utku Erdogan , Gabriel J. Lord , Joaquin Miguez

Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-19 Pierre E. Jacob

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are typically not straightforward to implement on parallel architectures. This is because standard resampling schemes involve communication between all particles. The $\alpha$-sequential Monte Carlo method was…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-21 Deborshee Sen

Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-01 Igor Melnyk , Arindam Banerjee

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-24 Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez

Sampling from the conditional (or posterior) probability distribution of the latent states of a Hidden Markov Model, given the realization of the observed process, is a non-trivial problem in the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To do…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-29 Sumeetpal S. Singh , Fredrik Lindsten , Eric Moulines

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Duo Xu

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Rupak Majumdar , Tigran Nagapetyan

We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Luc Lehéricy

We introduce neural particle smoothing, a sequential Monte Carlo method for sampling annotations of an input string from a given probability model. In contrast to conventional particle filtering algorithms, we train a proposal distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-05-01 Chu-Cheng Lin , Jason Eisner

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-25 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nick Whiteley , Emma McCoy

Bootstrap particle filter (BPF) is the corner stone of many popular algorithms used for solving inference problems involving time series that are observed through noisy measurements in a non-linear and non-Gaussian context. The long term…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-05 Kari Heine , Nick Whiteley , A. Taylan Cemgil

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible time series models in which the distributions of the observations depend on unobserved serially correlated states. The state-dependent distributions in HMMs are usually taken from some class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Roland Langrock , Thomas Kneib , Alexander Sohn , Stacy DeRuiter

The particle filter (PF), also known as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), approximates high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants in the discrete-time setting. To reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jianfeng Lu , Yuliang Wang

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Sofia Andersson , Tobias Rydén

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Kinetic equations model distributions of particles in position-velocity phase space. Often, one is interested in studying the long-time behavior of particles in high-collisional regimes in which an approximate (advection)-diffusion model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-07-09 Emil Løvbak , Giovanni Samaey , Stefan Vandewalle