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Sampling orthogonal polynomial bases via Monte Carlo is of interest for uncertainty quantification of models with high-dimensional random inputs, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions. It is known that bounding a probabilistic parameter,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-22 Jerrad Hampton , Alireza Doostan

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-25 Diego Tapias , David P. Sanders , Eduardo G. Altmann

An importance sampling approach for sampling copula models is introduced. We propose two algorithms that improve Monte Carlo estimators when the functional of interest depends mainly on the behaviour of the underlying random vector when at…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-08 Philipp Arbenz , Mathieu Cambou , Marius Hofert

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

For a wide class of applications of the Monte Carlo method, we describe a general sampling methodology that is guaranteed to converge to a specified equilibrium distribution function. The method is distinct from that of Metropolis in that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Bruce M. Boghosian

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) technique for approximating intractable integrals, for instance in Bayesian inference. The performance of IS relies heavily on the appropriate choice of the so-called proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ali Mousavi , Víctor Elvira

Phonon Monte Carlo (PMC) is a versatile stochasic technique for solving the Boltzmann transport equation for phonons. It is particularly well suited for analyzing thermal transport in structures that have real-space roughness or are too…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2016-02-26 L. N. Maurer , S. Mei , I. Knezevic

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method has been recognized as a powerful sampling tool in computational statistics. We show that performance of HMC can be significantly improved by incorporating importance sampling and an irreversible…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-26 Tijana Radivojević , Elena Akhmatskaya

We study a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the Gibbs measure with a non-convex energy function at a low temperature. We use the practical and popular geometric annealing schedule, and use a Langevin diffusion at each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Ruiyu Han , Gautam Iyer , Dejan Slepčev

Generally ``exact'' Quantum Monte Carlo computations for the ground state of many Bosons make use of importance sampling. The importance sampling is based, either on a guiding function or on an initial variational wave function. Here we…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-20 M. Rossi , M. Nava , L. Reatto , D. E. Galli

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-12 Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman , Yuling Yao , Jonah Gabry

In Monte Carlo simulations, proposed configurations are accepted or rejected according to an acceptance ratio, which depends on an underlying probability distribution and an a priori sampling probability. By carefully selecting the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-02-09 Emanuel Casiano-Diaz , Kipton Barros , Ying Wai Li , Adrian Del Maestro

We present density response estimators for Monte Carlo simulations that are based on a reweighting procedure, where the samples of an unperturbed system are used to estimate the properties of a system perturbed by an external harmonic…

We discuss modern ideas in Monte Carlo algorithms in the simplified setting of the one-dimensional anharmonic oscillator. After reviewing the connection between molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo, we introduce to the Metropolis and the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-07 Gabriele Tartero , Werner Krauth

We present a new Monte Carlo method for obtaining solutions of the Boltzmann equation for describing phonon transport in micro and nanoscale devices. The proposed method can resolve arbitrarily small signals (e.g. temperature differences)…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-05-30 Jean-Philippe Peraud , Nicolas Hadjiconstantinou

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo methodology for the approximation of intractable integrals, very often involving a target probability density function. The performance of IS heavily depends on the appropriate selection of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Víctor Elvira , Emilie Chouzenoux , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Luca Martino

Monte Carlo methods are widely used for approximating complicated, multidimensional integrals for Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) is an important class of Monte Carlo methods, which utilizes a population of proposals to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-30 Chaofan Huang , V. Roshan Joseph , Simon Mak