Related papers: Consistent Long-Term Yield Curve Prediction
This paper fills the limited statistical understanding of Shapley values as a variable importance measure from a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective. We introduce population-level \textit{Shapley curves} to measure the true variable…
In this paper, we propose a new model to address the problem of negative interest rates that preserves the analytical tractability of the original Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model without introducing a shift to the market interest rates,…
We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the…
We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semi-analytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negatives rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The…
The paper studies estimation of parameters of diffusion market models from historical data. The standard definition of implied volatility for these models presents its value as an implicit function of several parameters, including the…
In this paper, it is shown that a simple formulation of Economic Model Predictive Control can be used which possesses two features that are generally viewed as mutually exclusive, namely, a rather short prediction horizon…
We address the problem of prediction of multivariate data process using an underlying graph model. We develop a method that learns a sparse partial correlation graph in a tuning-free and computationally efficient manner. Specifically, the…
The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…
We consider nonparametric estimation of mean regression and conditional variance (or volatility) functions in nonlinear stochastic regression models. Simultaneous confidence bands are constructed and the coverage probabilities are shown to…
We discuss the no-arbitrage conditions in a general framework for discrete-time models of financial markets with proportional transaction costs and general information structure. We extend the results of Kabanov and al. (2002), Kabanov and…
In this article, we show necessary and sufficient conditions for a function to transform a continuous Markov semimartingale to a semimartingale. As a result, the no-arbitrage principle guarantees the differentiability of asset prices with…
A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion…
We give characterizations of asymptotic arbitrage of the first and second kind and of strong asymptotic arbitrage for large financial markets with small proportional transaction costs $\la_n$ on market $n$ in terms of contiguity properties…
Financial econometrics has become an increasingly popular research field. In this paper we review a few parametric and nonparametric models and methods used in this area. After introducing several widely used continuous-time and…
With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR)…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…
We construct continuous-time equilibrium models based on a finite number of exponential utility investors. The investors' income rates as well as the stock's dividend rate are governed by discontinuous Levy processes. Our main result…
This paper focuses on the stability of the non-arbitrage condition in discrete time market models when some unknown information $\tau$ is partially/fully incorporated into the market. Our main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, for a…
We show that a trader, who starts with no initial wealth and is not allowed to borrow money or short sell assets, is theoretically able to attain positive wealth by continuous trading, provided that she has perfect foresight of future asset…
We consider the pricing of American put options in a model-independent setting: that is, we do not assume that asset prices behave according to a given model, but aim to draw conclusions that hold in any model. We incorporate market…