Related papers: Consistent Long-Term Yield Curve Prediction
We consider the class of affine LIBOR models with multiple curves, which is an analytically tractable class of discrete tenor models that easily accommodates positive or negative interest rates and positive spreads. By introducing an…
In this article we propose a study of market models starting from a set of axioms, as one does in the case of risk measures. We define a market model simply as a mapping from the set of adapted strategies to the set of random variables…
In a model with no given probability measure, we consider asset pricing in the presence of frictions and other imperfections and characterize the property of coherent pricing, a notion related to (but much weaker than) the no arbitrage…
We provide a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem for a model independent discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs. We consider a probability-free version of the Robust No Arbitrage…
We propose a unified analysis of a whole spectrum of no-arbitrage conditions for financial market models based on continuous semimartingales. In particular, we focus on no-arbitrage conditions weaker than the classical notions of No…
We study continuous-time portfolio choice with nonlinear payoffs under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning. We develop a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation that accommodates nonlinear payoffs, broad utility…
In this research paper, I have applied various econometric time series and two machine learning models to forecast the daily data on the yield spread. First, I decomposed the yield curve into its principal components, then simulated various…
By adopting the polynomial interpolation method, we propose an approach to hedge against the interest-rate risk of the default-free bonds by measuring the nonparallel movement of the yield-curve, such as the translation, the rotation and…
We study a financial market where the risky asset is modelled by a geometric It\^o-L\'{e}vy process, with a singular drift term. This can for example model a situation where the asset price is partially controlled by a company which…
We introduce a financial market model featuring a risky asset whose price follows a sticky geometric Brownian motion and a riskless asset that grows with a constant interest rate $r\in \mathbb R $. We prove that this model satisfies No…
The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates (for each maturity) based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty,…
The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…
We consider a dynamic market model of liquidity where unmatched buy and sell limit orders are stored in order books. The resulting net demand surface constitutes the sole input to the model. We prove that generically there is no arbitrage…
Following-up Fukasawa and Gatheral (Frontiers of Mathematical Finance, 2022), we prove that the BBF formula, the SABR formula, and the rough SABR formula provide asymptotically arbitrage-free approximations of the implied volatility under,…
Persistent shifts in term-structure dynamics undermine the stability of single-regime models in long samples. We develop an arbitrage-free regime-switching generalized CIR (RS-GCIR) model that jointly prices the Chinese government bond…
We present an arbitrage free theoretical framework for modeling bid and ask prices of dividend paying securities in a discrete time setup using theory of dynamic acceptability indices. In the first part of the paper we develop the theory of…
We develop a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and model uncertainty. A robust notion of no-arbitrage of the second kind is defined and shown to be equivalent…
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term…
We prove a version of First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under transaction costs for discrete-time markets with dividend-paying securities. Specifically, we show that the no-arbitrage condition under the efficient friction…
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such…