Related papers: Multiple Change Point Estimation in Stationary Erg…
Consider a stationary real-valued time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ with a priori unknown distribution. The goal is to estimate the conditional expectation $E(X_{n+1}|X_0,..., X_n)$ based on the observations $(X_0,..., X_n)$ in a…
In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…
The problem of prediction consists in forecasting the conditional distribution of the next outcome given the past. Assume that the source generating the data is such that there is a stationary ergodic predictor whose error converges to zero…
This article introduces a nonparametric approach to spectral analysis of a high-dimensional multivariate nonstationary time series. The procedure is based on a novel frequency-domain factor model that provides a flexible yet parsimonious…
We propose a general framework to construct self-normalized multiple-change-point tests with time series data. The only building block is a user-specified one-change-point detecting statistic, which covers a wide class of popular methods,…
This study concerns problems of time-series forecasting under the weakest of assumptions. Related results are surveyed and are points of departure for the developments here, some of which are new and others are new derivations of previous…
Stationary points embedded in the derivatives are often critical for a model to be interpretable and may be considered as key features of interest in many applications. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model to efficiently infer the…
We introduce a generic class of dynamic nonlinear heterogeneous parameter models that incorporate individual and time fixed effects in both the intercept and slope. These models are subject to the incidental parameter problem, in that the…
The large-deviation method allows to characterize an ergodic counting process in terms of a thermodynamic frame where a free energy function determines the asymptotic non-stationary statistical properties of its fluctuations. Here, we study…
In this paper, we extend recent results on the convergence of ergodic averages along sequences generated by return times to shrinking targets in rapidly mixing systems, partially answering questions posed by the first author, Maass and the…
Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving…
The forward estimation problem for stationary and ergodic time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ taking values from a finite alphabet ${\cal X}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=x$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$…
We consider dynamical systems evolving near an equilibrium statistical state where the interest is in modelling long term behavior that is consistent with thermodynamic constraints. We adjust the distribution using an entropy-optimizing…
For a non-stationary or non-ergodic marked point process (MPP) on $\R^d$, the definition of averages becomes ambiguous as the process might have a different stochastic behavior in different realizations (non-ergodicity) or in different…
In this paper, in order to test whether changes have occurred in a nonlinear parametric regression, we propose a nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood. Firstly, we test the null hypothesis of no-change against the…
We establish the convergence rates and asymptotic distributions of the common break change-point estimators, obtained by least squares and maximum likelihood in panel data models and compare their asymptotic variances. Our model assumptions…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We propose a bootstrap-based test to detect a mean shift in a sequence of high-dimensional observations with unknown time-varying heteroscedasticity. The proposed test builds on the U-statistic based approach in Wang et al. (2022), targets…
Detecting and localizing change points in sequential data is of interest in many areas of application. Various notions of change points have been proposed, such as changes in mean, variance, or the linear regression coefficient. In this…
Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…