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Related papers: Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Foreca…

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Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-01-11 Shin Toriumi , Carolus J. Schrijver , Louise K. Harra , Hugh Hudson , Kaori Nagashima

Here we present the results of the study of the north-south (N-S) distribution and asymmetry of GOES soft X-ray (SXR) flares during solar cycle 24. The period of study includes ascending, maximum and descending phases of the cycle. During…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-07-15 Anita Joshi , Ramesh Chandra

Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-18 Thomas Williams , Christopher B. Prior , David MacTaggart , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Solar flare forecasting can be realized by means of the analysis of magnetic data through artificial intelligence techniques. The aim is to predict whether a magnetic active region (AR) will originate solar flares above a certain class…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-29 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy

We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Asensio Ramos

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 Antoine Strugarek , Paul Charbonneau

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-18 A. Kilcik , V. B. Yurchyshyn , V. Abramenko , P. R. Goode , A. Ozguc , J. P. Rozelot , W. Cao

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 A. Ajabshirizadeh , N. Masoumzadeh Jouzdani , S. Abbassi

Solar flares, the most powerful explosive phenomena in the solar system, may pose significant hazards to spaceborne satellites and ground-based infrastructure. Despite decades of intensive research, reliable flare prediction remains a…

The triggering mechanism(s) and critical condition(s) of solar flares are still not completely clarified, although various studies have attempted to elucidate them. We have also proposed a theoretical flare-trigger model based on MHD…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-04-04 Yumi Bamba , Kanya Kusano

With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-03-11 Brandon Panos , Lucia Kleint

Aims. In this paper, we investigate the temporal evolution and north-south (N-S) asymmetry in the occurrence of solar flares during cycle 21, 22, and 23, and compare the results with traditional solar activity indices. Methods. The flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-05-08 Bhuwan Joshi , R. Bhattacharyya , K. K. Pandey , Upendra Kushwaha , Yong-Jae Moon

Of all the activity observed on the Sun, two of the most energetic events are flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Usually, solar active regions that produce large flares will also produce a CME, but this is not always true (Yashiro et…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-04-25 Monica G. Bobra , Stathis Ilonidis

Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Temitope Adeyeha , Chetraj Pandey , Berkay Aydin

We use RHESSI high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy observations from ~6 to 100 keV to determine the statistical relationships between measured parameters (temperature, emission measure, etc.) of hot, thermal plasma in 37 intense (GOES…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-06-25 Amir Caspi , Säm Krucker , R. P. Lin

It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-01-10 M. B. Korsos , T. Baranyi , A. Ludmany

This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…

This study progresses solar flare prediction research by presenting a full-disk deep-learning model to forecast $\geq$M-class solar flares and evaluating its efficacy on both central (within $\pm$70$^\circ$) and near-limb (beyond…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-31 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Trisha Nandakumar , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-02-01 Sophie A. Murray , D. Shaun Bloomfield , Peter T. Gallagher