Related papers: Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Foreca…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
Sunspots or active regions (ARs) with a delta-magnetic configuration are known to be associated with strong eruptions such as flares and mass ejections. This article investigates the relationship between delta-ARs and flares over the course…
Introducing thresholds to analyze time series of emission from the Sun enables a new and simple definition of solar flare events, and their interoccurrence times. Rescaling time by the rate of events, the waiting and quiet time…
Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to…
Superflares on solar-type stars has been a rapidly developing field ever since the launch of $\it Kepler$. Over the years, there have been several studies investigating the statistics of these explosive events. In this study, we present a…
Solar flares strongly affect the Sun's atmosphere as well as the Earth's environment. Quantifying the maximum possible energy of solar flares of the present-day Sun, if any, is thus a key question in heliophysics. The largest solar flares…
We investigate the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Decomposition-LSTM (DLSTM) networks, combined with an ensemble algorithm, to predict solar flare occurrences using time-series data from the GOES catalog. The dataset spans from…
The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution…
To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008. It is found that the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
The solar wind, a stream of charged particles originating from the Sun and transcending interplanetary space, poses risks to technology and astronauts. In this work, we develop a prediction model to forecast the solar wind speed at the…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…
Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most…
It was recently pointed out that the distribution of times between solar flares (the flare waiting-time distribution) follows a power law, for long waiting times. Based on 25 years of soft X-ray flares observed by Geostationary Operational…
Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can…
We present a statistical analysis of properties of Soft X-Ray (SXR) emission, plasma temperature (T), and emission measure (EM), derived from GOES observations of flares in 2002-2017. The temperature and emission measures are obtained using…