Related papers: A Concise Resolution to the Two Envelope Paradox
We give a simple statistical proof of a binomial identity, by evaluating the Laplace transform of the maximum of n independent exponential random variables in two different ways. As a by product, we obtain a simple proof of an interesting…
Quantum theory is notoriously counterintuitive, and yet remains entirely self-consistent when applied universally. Here we uncover a new manifestation of its unusual consequences. We demonstrate, theoretically and experimentally (by means…
The Delayed-Choice Quantum Eraser experiment is commonly interpreted as implying that in quantum mechanics a choice made at one time can influence an earlier event. We here suggest an extension of the experiment that results in a paradox…
The problem of measurement is often considered as an inconsistency inside the quantum formalism. Many attempts to solve (or to dissolve) it have been made since the inception of quantum mechanics. The form of these attempts depends on the…
Simpson's paradox and collapsibility are two closely related concepts in the context of data analysis. While the knowledge about the occurrence of Simpson's paradox helps a statistician to draw correct and meaningful conclusions, the…
Abduction is a fundamental and important form of non-monotonic reasoning. Given a knowledge base explaining how the world behaves it aims at finding an explanation for some observed manifestation. In this paper we focus on propositional…
In this paper, we consider the problem of making skeptical inferences for the multi-label ranking problem. We assume that our uncertainty is described by a convex set of probabilities (i.e. a credal set), defined over the set of labels.…
As a serious attempt for constructing a new foundation for describing micro-incidents from a local causal standpoint, I explained before that each micro-entity can be assumed to be composed of a probability field joined to a particle…
This paper provides a novel metametaphysical approach to quantum indeterminacy. More specifically, it argues that bivalent quantum logic can successfully account for this kind of indeterminacy, given the non-truth-functional character of…
The notion of quantum information related to the two different perspectives of the global and local states is examined. There is circularity in the definition of quantum information because we can speak only of the information of systems…
We present a propositional logic to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and complete axiomatization…
Logical theories have been developed which have allowed temporal reasoning about eventualities (a la Galton) such as states, processes, actions, events, processes and complex eventualities such as sequences and recurrences of other…
This paper investigates the equilibrium portfolio selection for smooth ambiguity preferences in a continuous-time market. The investor is uncertain about the risky asset's drift term and updates the subjective belief according to the…
In the Bayesian approach to probability theory, probability quantifies a degree of belief for a single trial, without any a priori connection to limiting frequencies. In this paper we show that, despite being prescribed by a fundamental…
This paper argues that, insofar as we doubt the bivalence of the Continuum Hypothesis or the truth of the Axiom of Choice, we should also doubt the consistency of third-order arithmetic, both the classical and intuitionistic versions.…
Modern scientific cosmology pushes the boundaries of knowledge and the knowable. This is prompting questions on the nature of scientific knowledge. A central issue is what defines a 'good' model. When addressing global properties of the…
Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem directly. Expressive…
We revisit and generalize the concept of composite likelihood as a method to make a probabilistic inference by aggregation of multiple Bayesian agents, thereby defining a class of predictive models which we call composite Bayesian. This…
We explore whether ambiguous communication can be beneficial to the sender in a persuasion problem, when the receiver (and possibly the sender) is ambiguity averse. Our analysis highlights the necessity of using a collection of experiments…
An open set in C^n is pseudoconvex if and only if its intersection with every affine subspace of complex dimension two as seen as an open set in C^2 is pseudoconvex.