Related papers: A simple microstructure return model explaining mi…
The correlation matrix formalism is used to study temporal aspects of the stock market evolution. This formalism allows to decompose the financial dynamics into noise as well as into some coherent repeatable intraday structures. The present…
We revisit the classical Merton consumption--investment problem when risky-asset returns are modeled by stochastic differential equations interpreted through a general $\alpha$-integral, interpolating between It\^{o}, Stratonovich, and…
Synapses change on multiple timescales, ranging from milliseconds to minutes, due to a combination of both short- and long-term plasticity. Here we develop an extension of the common Generalized Linear Model to infer both short- and…
We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…
In this paper we will try to assess the multifractality displayed by the high-frequency returns of Madrid's Stock Exchange IBEX35 index. A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis shows that this index has a wide singularity spectrum…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…
In this letter we present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend.…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to…
In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise…
We describe a phase transition in continuum limits of interacting particle systems that exhibits a vertical bifurcation diagram. The transition is mediated by a competition short-range repulsion and long-range attraction. As a consequence…
Explainable boosting machines (EBMs) are popular "glass-box" models that learn a set of univariate functions using boosting trees. These achieve explainability through visualizations of each feature's effect. However, unlike linear model…
A correlation is established between the macro-scale friction regimes of metals and a transition between two dominant atomistic mechanisms of deformation. Metals tend to exhibit bi-stable friction behavior -- low and converging or high and…
No-arbitrage models of term structure have the feature that the return on zero-coupon bonds is the sum of the short rate and the product of volatility and market price of risk. Well known models restrict the behavior of the market price of…
We present an analytical model to study the role of expectation feedbacks and overlapping portfolios on systemic stability of financial systems. Building on [Corsi et al., 2016], we model a set of financial institutions having Value at Risk…
We study the average shape of fluctuations for subdiffusive processes, i.e., processes with uncorrelated increments but where the waiting time distribution has a broad power-law tail. This shape is obtained analytically by means of a…
Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect the tipping behaviors. These behaviors are undesirable…
Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…