Related papers: A simple microstructure return model explaining mi…
In this paper, we present a realized range-based multipower variation theory, which can be used to estimate return variation and draw jump-robust inference about the diffusive volatility component, when a high-frequency record of asset…
Bistable autonomous systems can be found inmany areas of science. When the intrinsic noise intensity is large, these systems exhibits stochastic transitions from onemetastable steady state to another. In electronic bistable memories, these…
The distribution of returns in financial time series exhibits heavy tails. In empirical studies, it has been found that gaps between the orders in the order book lead to large price shifts and thereby to these heavy tails. We set up an…
In order to investigate the origin of large price fluctuations, we analyze stock price changes of ten frequently traded NASDAQ stocks in the year 2002. Though the influence of the trading frequency on the aggregate return in a certain time…
A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time thermal bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change…
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible…
Several studies have shown that large changes in the returns of an asset are associated with the sized of the gaps present in the order book In general, these associations have been studied without explicitly considering the dynamics of…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
We hypothesize that portfolio sorts based on the V/P ratio generate excess returns and consist of companies that are undervalued for prolonged periods. Results, for the US market show that high V/P portfolios outperform low V/P portfolios…
This paper investigates the financial economics of simple periodic systems. Well-established financial procedures appear to be complicated, and lead to partially biased results. Probability theory is applied, and the focus is on the…
We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally…
We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive…
We quantify the effect of Gaussian white noise on fast--slow dynamical systems with one fast and two slow variables, which display mixed-mode oscillations owing to the presence of a folded-node singularity. The stochastic system can be…
Here we present a model for a small system combined with an explicit entropy bath that is comparably small. The dynamics of the model is defined by a simple matrix, M. Each row of M corresponds to a macrostate of the system, e.g. net…
In complex systems such as turbulent flows and financial markets, the dynamics in long and short time-lags, signaled by Gaussian and fat-tailed statistics, respectively, calls for a unified description. To address this issue we analyze a…
Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…
The creation and subsequent evolution of marginally-unstable modes have been observed in a wide range of fusion devices. This behaviour has been successfully explained, for a single frequency shifting mode, in terms of phase-space…
For polymer nanocomposites, disordered microstructural nature makes processing control and tailoring properties to desired values a challenge. Understanding process-structure-property relation can provide guidelines for process and…
Asynchrony, overlaps and delays in sensory-motor signals introduce ambiguity as to which stimuli, actions, and rewards are causally related. Only the repetition of reward episodes helps distinguish true cause-effect relationships from…
We suggest an empirical model of investment strategy returns which elucidates the importance of non-Gaussian features, such as time-varying volatility, asymmetry and fat tails, in explaining the level of expected returns. Estimating the…