Related papers: A simple microstructure return model explaining mi…
The effect of external fluctuations on the formation of spatial patterns is analysed by means of a stochastic Swift-Hohenberg model with multiplicative space-correlated noise. Numerical simulations in two dimensions show a shift of the…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
We revisit and demonstrate the Epps effect using two well-known non-parametric covariance estimators; the Malliavin and Mancino (MM), and Hayashi and Yoshida (HY) estimators. We show the existence of the Epps effect in the top 10 stocks…
Much research has been conducted arguing that tipping points at which complex systems experience phase transitions are difficult to identify. To test the existence of tipping points in financial markets, based on the alternating offer…
The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm…
This paper analyses the high-frequency intraday Bitcoin dataset from 2019 to 2022. During this time frame, the Bitcoin market index exhibited two distinct periods, 2019-20 and 2021-22, characterized by an abrupt change in volatility. The…
Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…
The basic model for high-frequency data in finance is considered, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is shown that this nonparametric model is in Le Cam's sense asymptotically equivalent to a…
Unlike macroscopic multistable mechanical systems such as snap bracelets or elastic shells that must be physically manipulated into various conformations, microscopic systems can undergo spontaneous conformation switching between…
The effect of additive white noise on a model for bursting behavior in large aspect-ratio binary fluid convection is considered. Such bursts are present in systems with nearly square symmetry and are the result of heteroclinic cycles…
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling…
Using 1-min returns of Bitcoin prices, we investigate statistical properties and multifractality of a Bitcoin time series. We find that the 1-min return distribution is fat-tailed, and kurtosis largely deviates from the Gaussian…
Multi-step forecasting is often described through a simple rule of thumb: recursive strategies are said to have high bias and low variance, while direct strategies are said to have low bias and high variance. We revisit this belief by…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in…
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…
While Indices, Index tracking funds and ETFs have grown in popularity during then last ten years, there are many structural problems inherent in Index calculation methodologies and the legal/economic structure of ETFs. These problems raise…
We test the hypothesis that consecutive intraday price changes in the most liquid U.S. equity ETF (SPY) are conditionally nonrandom. Using NBBO event-time data for about 1,500 regular trading days, we form for every lag L ordered pairs of a…
We empirically analyze the reversion of financial market trends with time horizons ranging from minutes to decades. The analysis covers equities, interest rates, currencies and commodities and combines 14 years of futures tick data, 30…
We analytically study a one dimensional compaction model in the glassy regime. Both correlation and response functions are calculated exactly in the evolving dense and low tapping strength limit, where the density relaxes in a $1/\ln t$…