Related papers: Sequential Monte Carlo smoothing for general state…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
In this paper, we explore statistical versus computational trade-off to address a basic question in the application of a distributed algorithm: what is the minimal computational cost in obtaining statistical optimality? In smoothing spline…
This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression…
In this paper, we investigate a continuous time version of the Stochastic Langevin Monte Carlo method, introduced in [WT11], that incorporates a stochastic sampling step inside the traditional over-damped Langevin diffusion. This method is…
Markov chain methods are remarkably successful in computational physics, machine learning, and combinatorial optimization. The cost of such methods often reduces to the mixing time, i.e., the time required to reach the steady state of the…
We give an algorithm that generates a uniformly random contingency table with specified marginals, i.e. a matrix with non-negative integer values and specified row and column sums. Such algorithms are useful in statistics and combinatorics.…
Many real-world problems encountered in several disciplines deal with the modeling of time-series containing different underlying dynamical regimes, for which probabilistic approaches are very often employed. In this paper we describe…
We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is…
Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…
Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…
We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden…
The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
An algorithm for estimating quasi-stationary distribution of finite state space Markov chains has been proven in a previous paper. Now this paper proves a similar algorithm that works for general state space Markov chains under very general…
The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…
We develop and analyze an asynchronous algorithm for distributed convex optimization when the objective writes a sum of smooth functions, local to each worker, and a non-smooth function. Unlike many existing methods, our distributed…
We prove a bound on the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) on static spaces using the $L_2$ distance between interpolating distributions and the mixing times of Markov kernels. This result is unique in that it is the first…
A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated…