Related papers: Sequential Monte Carlo smoothing for general state…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…
The use of heuristics to assess the convergence and compress the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo can be sub-optimal in terms of the empirical approximations that are produced. Typically a number of the initial states are attributed to…
Sampling from complicated probability distributions is a hard computational problem arising in many fields, including statistical physics, optimization, and machine learning. Quantum computers have recently been used to sample from…
Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t distributed measurement noise are presented. The proposed algorithms improve upon our earlier proposed filter and smoother using the mean field…
We present a novel algorithm, an adaptive-lag smoother, approximating efficiently, in an online fashion, sequences of expectations under the marginal smoothing distributions in general state-space models. The algorithm evolves recursively a…
We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the state of a dynamic state-space system where the output is subject to quantization. We compare some classical approaches and a new development in the literature to obtain the filtering…
We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…
Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…
In this article we focus on dynamic network data which describe interactions among a fixed population through time. We model this data using the latent space framework, in which the probability of a connection forming is expressed as a…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
We propose new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample probability distributions on submanifolds, which generalize previous methods by allowing the use of set-valued maps in the proposal step of the MCMC algorithms. The motivation for…
Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms (also known as particle filters) are popular methods to approximate filtering (and related) distributions of state-space models. However, they converge at the slow $1/\sqrt{N}$ rate, which may be an issue…
Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…
Markov chains and diffusion processes are indispensable tools in machine learning and statistics that are used for inference, sampling, and modeling. With the growth of large-scale datasets, the computational cost associated with simulating…
Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) is a class of MCMC algorithms where the proposal distribution changes at every iteration of the chain. In this case it is important to verify that such a Markov Chain indeed has a stationary…
This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…
Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…
Cyclical MCMC is a novel MCMC framework recently proposed by Zhang et al. (2019) to address the challenge posed by high-dimensional multimodal posterior distributions like those arising in deep learning. The algorithm works by generating a…