Related papers: Scaling limits for Hawkes processes and applicatio…
Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…
We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…
This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…
In this paper, we provide upper bounds on the d2 distance between a large class of functionals of a multivariate compound Hawkes process and a given Gaussian vector. This is proven using Malliavin's calculus defined on an underlying Poisson…
This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…
In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…
In high-frequency statistics and econometrics sums of functionals of increments of stochastic processes are commonly used and statistical inference is based on the asymptotic behaviour of these sums as the mesh of the observation times…
We study the evolution of a particle system whose genealogy is given by a supercritical continuous time Galton--Watson tree. The particles move independently according to a Markov process and when a branching event occurs, the offspring…
Taylor's law, also known as fluctuation scaling in physics and the power-law variance function in statistics, is an empirical pattern widely observed across fields including ecology, physics, finance, and epidemiology. It states that the…
We consider a tick-by-tick model of price formation, in which buy and sell orders are modeled as self-exciting point processes (Hawkes process), similar to the one in [Bacry, Delattre, Hoffmann, Muzy, Modelling microstructure noise with…
How heterogeneous multiscale methods (HMM) handle fluctuations acting on the slow variables in fast-slow systems is investigated. In particular, it is shown via analysis of central limit theorems (CLT) and large deviation principles (LDP)…
Consider a supercritical Crump--Mode--Jagers process $(\mathcal Z_t^{\varphi})_{t \geq 0}$ counted with a random characteristic $\varphi$. Nerman's celebrated law of large numbers [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 57, 365--395, 1981] states that,…
Stablecoins, digital assets pegged to a specific currency or commodity value, are heavily involved in transactions of major cryptocurrencies. The effects of deviations from their desired fixed values (depeggings) on the cryptocurrencies for…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…
In this paper, we study various new Hawkes processes. Specifically, we construct general compound Hawkes processes and investigate their properties in limit order books. With regards to these general compound Hawkes processes, we prove a…
Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average…
A stochastic analysis of financial data is presented. In particular we investigate how the statistics of log returns change with different time delays $\tau$. The scale dependent behaviour of financial data can be divided into two regions.…
Under an appropriate regular variation condition, the affinely normalized partial sums of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables converges weakly to a non-Gaussian stable random variable. A functional version…
We prove a functional limit theorem for a pair of nearly unstable Hawkes processes coupled through a triangular cross-excitation mechanism, when the two kernels have distinct heavy-tail exponents. This heterogeneous regime produces two…
The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…