Related papers: A tractable LIBOR model with default risk
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on…
This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy…
Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first…
We present a general framework for the estimation of corporate default based on a firm's capital structure, when its assets are assumed to follow a pure jump L\'evy processes; this setup provides a natural extension to usual default metrics…
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it…
This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…
This article presents FVA and CVA of a bilateral derivative in a coherent manner, based on recent developments in fair value accounting and ISDA standards. We argue that a derivative liability, after primary risk factors being hedged,…
We show that, for the purpose of pricing Swaptions, the Swap rate and the corresponding Forward rates can be considered lognormal under a single martingale measure. Swaptions can then be priced as options on a basket of lognormal assets and…
We consider asset price models whose dynamics are described by linear functions of the (time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which can range from a (market-inferred) Brownian motion to a general multidimensional…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's…
Risk-averse investors often wish to exclude stocks from their portfolios that bear high credit risk, which is a measure of a firm's likelihood of bankruptcy. This risk is commonly estimated by constructing signals from quarterly accounting…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
The paper reviews origins of the approach to pricing derivatives post-crisis by following three papers that have received wide acceptance from practitioners as the theoretical foundations for it - [Piterbarg 2010], [Burgard and Kjaer 2010]…
How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score…
The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market…
The calibration of a local volatility models to a given set of option prices is a classical problem of mathematical finance. It was considered in multiple papers where various solutions were proposed. In this paper an extension of the…
In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…
In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the…