Related papers: On the equivalence between standard and sequential…
Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents…
This paper introduces constrained mixtures for continuous distributions, characterized by a mixture of distributions where each distribution has a shape similar to the base distribution and disjoint domains. This new concept is used to…
This paper studies the role played by identification in the Bayesian analysis of statistical and econometric models. First, for unidentified models we demonstrate that there are situations where the introduction of a non-degenerate prior…
Divide-and-conquer Bayesian methods consist of three steps: dividing the data into smaller computationally manageable subsets, running a sampling algorithm in parallel on all the subsets, and combining parameter draws from all the subsets.…
A theory of quantitative inference about the parameters of sampling distributions is constructed deductively by following very general rules, referred to as the Cox-Polya-Jaynes Desiderata. The inferences are made in terms of probability…
A simple dynamical model over a discrete classical state space is presented. In a certain limit, it reduces to one in a class of models subsuming Bell's field-theoretic version of Bohmian mechanics. But it exhibits the massive parallelism…
A hidden Markov model is called observable if distinct initial laws give rise to distinct laws of the observation process. Observability implies stability of the nonlinear filter when the signal process is tight, but this need not be the…
Filtering and smoothing with a generalised representation of uncertainty is considered. Here, uncertainty is represented using a class of outer measures. It is shown how this representation of uncertainty can be propagated using…
We consider the problem of estimating the maximum posterior probability (MAP) state sequence for a finite state and finite emission alphabet hidden Markov model (HMM) in the Bayesian setup, where both emission and transition matrices have…
The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a…
The penalized profile sampler for semiparametric inference is an extension of the profile sampler method (Lee, Kosorok and Fine, 2005) obtained by profiling a penalized log-likelihood. The idea is to base inference on the posterior…
We study Bayesian posterior consistency in parametric density models with proper priors, challenging the perception that the problem is settled. Classical results established consistency via MLE convergence under regularity and…
Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the…
We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…
Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…
The paper introduces a Bayesian estimation method for quantile regression in univariate ordinal models. Two algorithms are presented that utilize the latent variable inferential framework of Albert and Chib (1993) and the normal-exponential…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
Normalization, $D(X + 1) \to D(X) + 1$, is almost a distributive law; but because one of the distributive law axioms only holds up-to-idempotent, it yields a non-associative composition of normalized kernels. We introduce the Markov magmoid…
There has recently been renewed recognition of the need to understand the consistency properties that must be preserved when a generalized matrix inverse is required. The most widely known generalized inverse, the Moore-Penrose…
Let $(X, Y) = (X_n, Y_n)_{n \geq 1}$ be the output process generated by a hidden chain $Z = (Z_n)_{n \geq 1}$, where $Z$ is a finite state, aperiodic, time homogeneous, and irreducible Markov chain. Let $LC_n$ be the length of the longest…