Related papers: On the equivalence between standard and sequential…
We propose a simple tractable pair hidden Markov model for pairwise sequence alignment that accounts for the presence of short tandem repeats. Using the framework of gain functions, we design several optimization criteria for decoding this…
We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…
We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…
When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…
Inferring the sequence of states from observations is one of the most fundamental problems in Hidden Markov Models. In statistical physics language, this problem is equivalent to computing the marginals of a one-dimensional model with a…
Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modelling time series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved…
Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification…
Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…
Recent work has discussed the importance of multiplicative closure for the Markov models used in phylogenetics. For continuous-time Markov chains, a sufficient condition for multiplicative closure of a model class is ensured by demanding…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
We consider a pair of correlated processes {Z_n} and {S_n} (two sided), where the former is observable and the later is hidden. The uncertainty in the estimation of Z_n upon its finite past history is H(Z_n|Z_0^{n-1}), and for estimation of…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation in a partially observed linear Gaussian system with small noises in the state and observation equations. We describe asymptotic properties of the MLE and Bayes estimators in the setting with…
Composition of low-dimensional distributions, whose foundations were laid in the papaer published in the Proceeding of UAI'97 (Jirousek 1997), appeared to be an alternative apparatus to describe multidimensional probabilistic models. In…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…
Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…
In most applications of model-based Markov decision processes, the parameters for the unknown underlying model are often estimated from the empirical data. Due to noise, the policy learnedfrom the estimated model is often far from the…
We consider filtering for a hidden Markov model that evolves with multiple time scales in the hidden states. In particular, we consider the case where one of the states is a scaled Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with fast reversion to a…
We compare different selection criteria to choose the number of latent states of a multivariate latent Markov model for longitudinal data. This model is based on an underlying Markov chain to represent the evolution of a latent…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…