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Count time series data are frequently analyzed by modeling their conditional means and the conditional variance is often considered to be a deterministic function of the corresponding conditional mean and is not typically modeled…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Tianqing Liu , Xiaohui Yuan

This paper introduces a novel Ito diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data, which can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time non-linear exponential GARCH structure with log-integrated…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-09 Donggyu Kim

Autoregressive tempered fractionally integrated moving average (ARTFIMA) time series is a useful model for velocity data in turbulence flows. In this paper, we obtain an invariance principle for the partial sum of an ARTFIMA process. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-20 Farzad Sabzikar

Modelling physical data with linear discrete time series, namely Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARFIMA), is a technique which achieved attention in recent years. However, these models are used mainly as a statistical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-03-20 Jakub Ślęzak , Aleksander Weron

We study a Markov process with two components: the first component evolves according to one of finitely many underlying Markovian dynamics, with a choice of dynamics that changes at the jump times of the second component. The second…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Bertrand Cloez , Martin Hairer

Engle and Russell (1998, Econometrica, 66:1127--1162) apply results from the GARCH literature to prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the (exponential) QMLE for the generalized autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-06 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Thomas Mikosch , Anders Rahbek , Frederik Vilandt

The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-03 Madhur Mangalam , Damian G. Kelty-Stephen

A new mixture autoregressive model based on Student's $t$-distribution is proposed. A key feature of our model is that the conditional $t$-distributions of the component models are based on autoregressions that have multivariate…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-11 Mika Meitz , Daniel Preve , Pentti Saikkonen

For a strictly stationary sequence of $\mathbb{R}_{+}^{d}$--valued random vectors we derive functional convergence of partial maxima stochastic processes under joint regular variation and weak dependence conditions. The limit process is an…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-14 Danijel Krizmanić

The Lyapounov exponent and sharp conditions for geometric ergodicity are determined of a time series model with both a threshold autoregression term and threshold autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors. The conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Daren B. H. Cline , Huay-min H. Pu

In this paper we study time-inhomogeneous affine processes beyond the common assumption of stochastic continuity. In this setting times of jumps can be both inaccessible and predictable. To this end we develop a general theory of finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Martin Keller-Ressel , Thorsten Schmidt , Robert Wardenga

We derive an explicit formula for likelihood function for Gaussian VARMA model conditioned on initial observables where the moving-average (MA) coefficients are scalar. For fixed MA coefficients the likelihood function is optimized in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-02 Du Nguyen

We propose a novel class of prior distributions for sequences of orthogonal functions, which are frequently required in various statistical models such as functional principal component analysis (FPCA). Our approach constructs priors…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Daichi Mochihashi

This work defines two classes of processes, that we term {\it tempered fractional multistable motion} and {\it tempered multifractional stable motion}. They are extensions of fractional multistable motion and multifractional stable motion,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-04 Xiequan Fan , Jacques Lévy Véhel

We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-19 Anindya Roy , Tucker S. McElroy , Peter Linton

It has been observed that an interesting class of non-Gaussian stationary processes is obtained when in the harmonics of a signal with random amplitudes and phases, frequencies can also vary randomly. In the resulting models, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Anastassia Baxevani , Krzysztof Podgórski

Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-28 Anita Behme , Claudia Klüppelberg , Kathrin Mayr

It is known that, in general, an affine or Gabor AP-frame is an $L^2(\mathbb{R})$-frame and conversely. In part as a consequence of the Ergodic Theorem, we prove a necessary and sufficient condition for an affine (wavelet) system…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Hernán Diego Centeno , Juan Miguel Medina

A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-03 Yuhyeong Jang , Raanju R. Sundararajan , Wagner Barreto-Souza

We study the behavior of a real-valued and unobservable process (Y_t) under an extreme event of a related process (X_t) that is observable. Our analysis is motivated by the well-known GARCH model which represents two such sequences, i.e.…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-16 Andree Ehlert , Ulf-Rainer Fiebig , Anja Janßen , Martin Schlather
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