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We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Hanna Gruber , Moritz Jirak

In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-25 Aastha M. Sathe , N. S. Upadhye

In this paper, we consider a model called CHARME (Conditional Heteroscedastic Autoregressive Mixture of Experts), a class of generalized mixture of nonlinear nonparametric AR-ARCH time series. Under certain Lipschitz-type conditions on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-18 José G. Gómez García , Jalal Fadili , Christophe Chesneau

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Balázs Csanád Csáji

The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in distribution to an infinite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this convergence to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-20 Katarzyna Bartkiewicz , Adam Jakubowski , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger

Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-10 Marko Voutilainen , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

We propose a novel flexible bivariate conditional Poisson (BCP) INteger-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model for correlated count time series data. Our proposed BCP-INGARCH model is mathematically…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Luiza S. C. Piancastelli , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Hernando Ombao

In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-27 El Hadji Mamadou Sall , El Hadji Deme , Abdou Ka Diongue

We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Akihiko Inoue

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. We propose an essentially asymptotically efficient estimation method for the system parameters of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-14 Máté Mánfay , László Gerencsér , Zsanett Orlovits

Autoregressive tempered fractionally integrated moving average with stable innovations modifies the power-law kernel of the fractionally integrated time series model by adding an exponential tempering factor. The tempered time series is a…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Jinu Kabala , Farzad Sabzikar

We propose Neural GARCH, a class of methods to model conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series. Neural GARCH is a neural network adaptation of the GARCH 1,1 model in the univariate case, and the diagonal BEKK 1,1 model in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

COGARCH models are continuous time version of the well known GARCH models of financial returns. They are solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a L\'evy process. The first aim of this paper is to show how the method of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-03 Enrico Bibbona , Ilia Negri

Stationarity is a very common assumption in time series analysis. A vector autoregressive process is stationary if and only if the roots of its characteristic equation lie outside the unit circle, constraining the autoregressive coefficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Sarah E. Heaps

In this article, we introduce a Gegenbauer autoregressive tempered fractionally integrated moving average (GARTFIMA) process. We work on the spectral density and autocovariance function for the introduced process. The parameter estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Niharika Bhootna , Arun Kumar

We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochastic walks display slowly-decaying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 H. Eduardo Roman , Markus Porto

For affine processes on finite-dimensional cones, we give criteria for geometric ergodicity - that is exponentially fast convergence to a unique stationary distribution. Ergodic results include both the existence of exponential moments of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Eberhard Mayerhofer , Robert Stelzer , Johanna Vestweber

Multivariate $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ processes are introduced as a continuous-time models for multidimensional heteroskedastic observations. Our model is driven by a single multivariate L\'{e}vy process and the latent time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-24 Robert Stelzer

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-11-22 Sebastian Ankargren , Måns Unosson , Yukai Yang

We consider non-ergodic class of stationary real harmonizable symmetric $\alpha$-stable processes $X=\left\{X(t):t\in\mathbb{R}\right\}$ with a finite symmetric and absolutely continuous control measure. We refer to its density function as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Ly Viet Hoang , Evgeny Spodarev