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P\'{o}lya urn is a stochastic process in which balls are randomly drawn from an urn of red and blue balls, and balls of the same color as the drawn balls are added. The probability of a ball of a certain color being drawn is equal to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-10 Shintaro Mori , Masato Hisakado , Kazuaki Nakayama

Since its inception in 1907, the Ehrenfest urn model (EUM) has served as a test bed of key concepts of statistical mechanics. Here we employ this model to study large deviations of a time-additive quantity. We consider two continuous-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-28 Baruch Meerson , Pini Zilber

Given a set of n balls each colored with a color, a ball is said to be majority, k-majority, plurality if its color class has size larger than half of the number of balls, has size at least k, has size larger than any other color class;…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2012-03-08 Dániel Gerbner , Gyula O. H. Katona , Dömötör Pálvölgyi , Balázs Patkós

We consider systems of interacting Generalized Friedman's Urns (GFUs) having irreducible mean replacement matrices. The interaction is modeled through the probability to sample the colors from each urn, that is defined as convex combination…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-09 Giacomo Aletti , Andrea Ghiglietti

We consider a mean-field dynamical urn model, defined by rules which give the rate at which a ball is drawn from an urn and put in another one, chosen amongst an assembly. At equilibrium, this model possesses a fluid and a condensed phase,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 C. Godreche , J. M. Luck

An urn contains a known number of balls of two different colors. We describe the random variable counting the smallest number of draws needed in order to observe at least $\,c\,$ of both colors when sampling without replacement for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-28 Daniel Zelterman

A certain sampling process, concerning an urn with balls of two colors, proposed in 1965 by B.E. Oakley and R.L. Perry, and discussed by Peter Winkler and Martin Gardner, that has an extremely simple answer for the probability, namely the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Shalosh B. Ekhad , Doron Zeilberger

We propose a stochastic model of opinion exchange in networks. A finite set of agents is organized in a fixed network structure. There is a binary state of the world and each agent receives a private signal on the state. We model beliefs as…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-01-31 Emilien Macault

A cyclic urn is an urn model for balls of types $0,\ldots,m-1$. The urn starts at time zero with an initial configuration. Then, in each time step, first a ball is drawn from the urn uniformly and independently from the past. If its type is…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Noela Müller , Ralph Neininger

A cyclic urn is an urn model for balls of types $0,\ldots,m-1$ where in each draw the ball drawn, say of type $j$, is returned to the urn together with a new ball of type $j+1 \mod m$. The case $m=2$ is the well-known Friedman urn. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Noela S. Müller , Ralph Neininger

We consider the distinct elements problem, where the goal is to estimate the number of distinct colors in an urn containing $ k $ balls based on $n$ samples drawn with replacements. Based on discrete polynomial approximation and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-16 Yihong Wu , Pengkun Yang

In responding to a question on Math Stackexchange, the author formulated the problem of determining the number of strings of balls colored in most $n$ colors with a number $k$ of repeated colors. In this paper, we formulate the problem more…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-02-22 Jeremy M. Dover

We consider a game with two players, consisting of a number of rounds, where the first player to win $n$ rounds becomes the overall winner. Who wins each individual round is governed by a certain urn having two types of balls (type 1 and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Stanislav Volkov , Magnus Wiktorsson

We study a networked system of innovation processes, where each process is modeled as an urn with infinitely many colors-a classical framework for capturing the emergence of novelties. Extending this paradigm, we analyze a model of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Giacomo Aletti , Irene Crimaldi , Andrea Ghiglietti

Generalized Polya urn models have been used to model the establishment dynamics of a small founding population consisting of k different genotypes or strategies. As population sizes get large, these population processes are…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-04 Mathieu Faure , Sebastian Schreiber

Consider two urns, $A$ and $B$, where initially $A$ contains a large number $n$ of balls and $B$ is empty. At each step, with equal probability, either we pick a ball at random in $A$ and place it in $B$, or vice-versa (provided of course…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-26 Jean Bertoin

We consider triangular P\'olya urns and show under very weak conditions a general strong limit theorem of the form $X_{ni}/a_{ni}\to \mathcal{X}_i$ a.s., where $X_{ni}$ is the number of balls of colour $i$ after $n$ draws; the constants…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-22 Svante Janson

We introduce a variant of Shepp's classical urn problem in which the optimal stopper does not know whether sampling from the urn is done with or without replacement. By considering the problem's continuous-time analog, we provide bounds on…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-07 Kristoffer Glover

The inductive size bias coupling technique and Stein's method yield a Berry-Esseen theorem for the number of urns having occupancy $d \ge 2$ when $n$ balls are uniformly distributed over $m$ urns. In particular, there exists a constant $C$…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Jay Bartroff , Larry Goldstein

One of the most striking effect of fluctuations in evolutionary game theory is the possibility for mutants to fixate (take over) an entire population. Here, we generalize a recent WKB-based theory to study fixation in evolutionary games…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-08-27 Mauro Mobilia , Michael Assaf
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