Related papers: Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during t…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the…
Applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to the geomagnetic data recorded at three measuring stations in Japan, Rong et al. in 2012 reported that anomalous magnetic field variations were identified well before the occurrence of the…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
The T2K long-baseline neutrino-oscillationexperiment was started in January 2010 for the purpose of physics data-taking. Until the massive earthquake on March 11, 2011 in Japan, $1.43\times 10^{20}$ pot data were accumulated. In this data,…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
Sedimentary records of tsunamis are a precious tool to assess the occurrence of past events, as attested by an abundant literature, which has seen a particular 'boom' in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku…
Immediately after the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan we started to continuously survey the Outgoing Long-wavelength Radiation (OLR, 10-13 microns) from NOAA/AVHRR. Our preliminary results show the presence of hot spots on…
In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component…
Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
Testing the global earthquake catalogue for indications of non-Poissonian attributes has been an area of intense research, especially since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The usual approach is to test statistically for the hypothesis that the…
Local ionospheric density anomalies have been reported in the days prior to major earthquakes. This global study statistically investigates whether consistent ionospheric anomalies occur in the 24 hours prior to earthquakes across different…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
The ability to measure, predict, and compute tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be done by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…