Related papers: Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during t…
The advanced machine learning algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was developed to forecast strong aftershocks in earthquake sequences and has been successfully tested in Italy, western Slovenia, Greece, and California.…
Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the mechanical properties of a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of…
In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…
Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…
Non-inertial afterslip has been inferred to occur following large earthquakes. An explanation for this slow slip phenomenon is that coseismically generated stresses induce sliding on parts of a fault surface with velocity-strengthening…
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…
The 2011 Tohoku tsunami entered the Kitakami river and propagated there as a train of shock waves, recorded with a 1-min interval at water level stations at Fukuchi, Iino, and the weir 17.2 km from the mouth, where the bulk of the wave was…
We show analytically that the answer to the question, "The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next ?" depends crucially on the statistics of the fluctuations in the interval times between…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
An earthquake, Tohoku region Pacific Coast earthquake, occurred on the 11th of March, 2011, and subsequent Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents have been stirring natural radiation around the author's office in Fukushima Medical…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
Despite dissimilar slip rates, slow earthquakes are faulting as ordinary earthquakes are. It is therefore physically natural that slow earthquakes also cause postseismic motions similarly to ordinary earthquakes, even though coseismic and…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 hours later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
Aftershock sequences are of particular interest in seismic research since they may condition seismic activity in a given region over long time spans. While they are typically identified with periods of enhanced seismic activity after a…