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In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-22 A. Mogulskii , E. Pechersky , A. Yambartsev

This paper develops a method to upper-bound extreme-values of time-windowed risks for stochastic processes. Examples of such risks include the maximum average or 90% quantile of the current along a transmission line in any 5-minute window.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-12 Jared Miller , Niklas Schmid , Matteo Tacchi , Didier Henrion , Roy S. Smith

To deal with stochastic hybrid systems with general state-dependent switching, we propose an approximation method by a sequence of stochastic hybrid systems with piecewise constant type switching. The convergence rate in the Wasserstein…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Jinghai Shao , Lingdi Wang , Qiong Wu

We deal with stochastic differential equations with jumps. In order to obtain an accurate approximation scheme, it is usual to replace the "small jumps" by a Brownian motion. In this paper, we prove that for every fixed time $t$, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-15 Vlad Bally , Yifeng Qin

The purpose of this paper is to ensure the conditions of G\"artner-Ellis Theorem for evaluations of the empirical measure. We show that up-to-date conditions for ensuring the convergence to a quasi-stationary distribution can be applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Aurélien Velleret

We define the probability structure of a continuous-time time-homogeneous Markov jump process, on a finite graph, that represents the continuous-time counterpart of the so-called Ruelle-Bowen discrete-time random walk. It constitutes the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Michele Pavon

In this paper we present the distribution of the maximum of the asymmetric telegraph process in an arbitrary time interval $[0,t]$ under the conditions that the initial velocity $V(0)$ is either $c_1$ or $-c_2$ and the number of changes of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-07 Fabrizio Cinque , Enzo Orsingher

We provide explicit nonasymptotic estimates for the rate of convergence of empirical means of Markov chains, together with a Gaussian or exponential control on the deviations of empirical means. These estimates hold under a "positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Aldéric Joulin , Yann Ollivier

We show how the infinitesimal exchangeable pairs approach to Stein's method combines naturally with the theory of Markov semigroups. We present a multivariate normal approximation theorem for functions of a random variable invariant with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-01 David Grzybowski , Mark Meckes

We study the problem of sampling from a distribution $\target$ using the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm and provide rate of convergences for this algorithm in terms of Wasserstein distance of order $2$. Our result holds as long as the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-04 Thomas Bonis

In this paper, we establish an abstract framework for the approximation of the invariant probability measure for a Markov semigroup. Following Pag{\`e}s and Panloup [40] we use an Euler scheme with decreasing step (unadjusted Langevin…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Vlad Bally , Yifeng Qin

Data represented by probability measures arise as empirical distributions, posterior distributions, and feature-based representations of complex objects. We study heterogeneity in a population of probability measures through the expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Kisung You

Distributionally-robust optimization is often studied for a fixed set of distributions rather than time-varying distributions that can drift significantly over time (which is, for instance, the case in finance and sociology due to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-01 Iman Shames , Farhad Farokhi

We introduce the Mass Migration Process (MMP), a conservative particle system on ${\mathbb N}^{{\mathbb Z}^d}$. It consists in jumps of $k$ particles ($k\ge 1$) between sites, with a jump rate depending only on the state of the system at…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-08 Lucie Fajfrova , Thierry Gobron , Ellen Saada

We derive first-order (in the stepsize) bounds on the bias in Wasserstein distances of the invariant measure of stochastic gradient kinetic Langevin dynamics with minimal assumptions on the stochastic gradient noise. These bounds sharpen…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-28 Daniel Paulin , Peter A. Whalley

In order to sample from a given target distribution (often of Gibbs type), the Monte Carlo Markov chain method consists in constructing an ergodic Markov process whose invariant measure is the target distribution. By sampling the Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Luc Rey-Bellet , Kostantinos Spiliopoulos

We investigate a piecewise-deterministic Markov process, evolving on a Polish metric space, whose deterministic behaviour between random jumps is governed by some semi-flow, and any state right after the jump is attained by a randomly…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Dawid Czapla , Sander C. Hille , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

Extreme value functionals of stochastic processes are inverse functionals of the first passage time -- a connection that renders their probability distribution functions equivalent. Here, we deepen this link and establish a framework for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-30 David Hartich , Aljaz Godec

Most work on wireless network throughput ignores the temporal correlation inherent to wireless channels because it degrades tractability. To better model and quantify the temporal variations of wireless network throughput, this paper…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-04-01 Chun-Hung Liu , Jeffrey G. Andrews

We instigate the properties of the threshold contact process (TCP), a process showing an absorbing-state phase transition with infinitely many absorbing states, on random complex networks. The finite size scaling exponents characterizing…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Renan S. Sander , Silvio C. Ferreira , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras