Related papers: Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis…
Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of…
The deactivation coefficient has been introduced for the source that cools down after the mainshock of the earthquake. The deactivation coefficient satisfies two conditions. First, it can be computed from observed aftershock frequency data…
We prove the efficiency of a new method for the detection of crucial events that might have useful applications to the war against terrorism. This has to do with the search for rare but significant events, a theme of research that has been…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
Research on the earthquake occurrences using a statistical methodology based on point processes has mainly focused on the data featuring earthquake catalogs which ignores the effect of environmental variables. In this paper, we introduce…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
The presented paper is devoted to the search for mathematical basis for describing the aftershock evolution of strong earthquakes. We consider the experimental facts and heuristic arguments that allow to make a choice and to focus on the…
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago south of Japan's main islands, has experienced ongoing earthquake swarm activity in 2025, raising concerns about triggering the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. The Japan Meteorological Agency…
Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…
While the Fukushima-Daiichi was designed and constructed the maximal tsunami height estimate was about 3 m based on analysis of statistical data including Chile earthquake in 1960. The NPP project industrial site height was 10 m. The…
Despite dissimilar slip rates, slow earthquakes are faulting as ordinary earthquakes are. It is therefore physically natural that slow earthquakes also cause postseismic motions similarly to ordinary earthquakes, even though coseismic and…
The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…
An efficient method for inferring Manning's $n$ coefficients using water surface elevation data was presented in Sraj et al. (2014) focusing on a test case based on data collected during the $T\=ohoku$ earthquake and tsunami. Polynomial…