Related papers: Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

The time of occurrence of the large EQ that occurred recently in Japan (March 11th, 2011, Mw = 8.9) is compared to the time of peak amplitude occurrence of the M1 and K1 tidal components. It is shown that the specific EQ occurred on the…

Together with the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes, Omori's law is the best established empirical characterization of earthquake sequences and states that the number of smaller earthquakes per unit time triggered by a…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to earthquake hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large earthquake regime.…

The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…

Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…

A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

This paper discusses the GPS (Global Positioning System) observed TEC (Total Electron Content) variations prior to the M 9.0 Great Tohoku (Japan, Sendai) March 11, 2011 and M 7.1 Oct. 23, 2011 Turkey Van earthquakes as possible…

We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic…

The upper bound earthquake magnitude (maximum possible magnitude) of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation is the right truncation point (right end-point) of a truncated exponential distribution and is important in the probabilistic…

The elementary theory of relaxation of the source cooling down after the main shock of an earthquake is presented axiomatically. The names of the objects under study are given and the relationships between them are determined. A new basic…

Large continental earthquakes activate multiple faults in a complex fault system, dynamically inducing co-seismic damage around them. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in the northern South Island of New Zealand has been reported as one…

The $b$-value in earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution quantifies the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. Monitoring its evolution could provide fundamental insights into temporal variations of stress on different…

The elementary theory of aftershocks, being relatively simple mathematically, belongs to the basics of earthquake physics. The paper briefly outlines the concepts and ideas of the theory, provides equations for the relaxation of the source…

Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…

Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue…

Around 90% of the earthquakes in the world occur at the circum-Pacific belt referred to as the Pacific Ring of Fire exposing the countries in this region to high risk of earthquake hazards. We model fluctuations of the different seismic…