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We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process.…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…
This paper concerns the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with normalized random measure priors. Making use of some recent posterior characterizations for the class of…
The negative multinomial distribution is a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an unknown matrix of probabilities on the basis of observations of negative…
Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic…
Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…
We consider priors for several nonparametric Bayesian models which use finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…
In this study, we apply a multidimensional self-exciting negative binomial distribution (SE-NBD) process to default portfolios with 13 sectors. The SE-NBD process is a Poisson process with a gamma-distributed intensity function. We extend…
Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods (or likelihood-free methods) have appeared in the past fifteen years as useful methods to perform Bayesian analyses when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. Several…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…
For many decades now, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has been a popular framework to systematically account for model uncertainty that arises in situations when multiple competing models are available to describe the same or similar…
Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…
Bayesian matrix factorization (BMF) is a powerful tool for producing low-rank representations of matrices and for predicting missing values and providing confidence intervals. Scaling up the posterior inference for massive-scale matrices is…
In this article, we propose a new three parameter distribution by compounding negative binomial with reciprocal inverse Gaussian model called negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution. This model is tractable with some…
In this paper we use the framework of algebraic effects from programming language theory to analyze the Beta-Bernoulli process, a standard building block in Bayesian models. Our analysis reveals the importance of abstract data types, and…
RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) has become a powerful technology to characterize gene expression profiles because it is more accurate and comprehensive than microarrays. Although statistical methods that have been developed for microarray data can…
We revisit the problem of simultaneously testing the means of $n$ independent normal observations under sparsity. We take a Bayesian approach to this problem by introducing a scale-mixture prior known as the normal-beta prime (NBP) prior.…
The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…
Suppose we observe a Poisson process in real time for which the intensity may take on two possible values $\lambda_0$ and $\lambda_1$. Suppose further that the priori probability of the true intensity is not given. We solve a minimax…