Related papers: Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in …
Diagnostic tests that can detect pre-clinical or sub-clinical infection, are one of the most powerful tools in our armoury of weapons to control infectious diseases. Considerable effort has been paid to improving diagnostic testing for…
Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian…
Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…
Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…
Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…
In the last year more than 70,000 people have been brought to the UK hospitals with serious injuries. Each time a clinician has to urgently take a patient through a screening procedure to make a reliable decision on the trauma treatment.…
A prey animal surveying its environment must decide whether there is a dangerous predator present or not. If there is, it may flee. Flight has an associated cost, so the animal should not flee if there is no danger. However, the prey animal…
In this paper, an empirical evaluation of three inference methods for uncertain reasoning is presented in the context of Pathfinder, a large expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node pathology. The inference procedures evaluated are (1)…
In genetic studies of complex diseases, the underlying mode of inheritance is often not known. Thus, the most powerful test or other optimal procedure for one model, e.g. recessive, may be quite inefficient if another model, e.g. dominant,…
Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…
One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to…
When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…
A growing body of literature attempts to learn about contagion using observational (i.e. non-experimental) data collected from a single social network. While the conclusions of these studies may be correct, the methods rely on assumptions…
We consider the problem of deciding on sampling strategy, in particular sampling design. We propose a risk measure, whose minimizing value guides the choice. The method makes use of a superpopulation model and takes into account uncertainty…
In recent years, machine learning has witnessed extensive adoption across various sectors, yet its application in medical image-based disease detection and diagnosis remains challenging due to distribution shifts in real-world data. In…
It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings…
Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder that affects a significant portion of the human population and imposes serious risks in the daily life of patients. Despite advances in machine learning and IoT, small, nonstigmatizing wearable…
Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…
Bayesian belief networks can be used to represent and to reason about complex systems with uncertain, incomplete and conflicting information. Belief networks are graphs encoding and quantifying probabilistic dependence and conditional…