Related papers: High Frequency Lead/lag Relationships - Empirical …
We study the effect of a weak random additive noise in a linear chain of N locally-coupled logistic maps at the edge of chaos. Maps tend to synchronize for a strong enough coupling, but if a weak noise is added, very intermittent…
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask…
A broad set of empirical phenomenon in the study of social, economic and machine behaviour can be modelled as complex systems with averaging dynamics. However many of these models naturally result in consensus or consensus-like outcomes. In…
The leverage effect refers to the well-established relationship between returns and volatility. When returns fall, volatility increases. We examine the role of the leverage effect with regards to generating density forecasts of equity…
We measured the correlation of the times between successive flaps of a flag for a variety of wind speeds and found no evidence of low dimensional chaotic behavior in the return maps of these times. We instead observed what is best modeled…
We test the hypothesis that consecutive intraday price changes in the most liquid U.S. equity ETF (SPY) are conditionally nonrandom. Using NBBO event-time data for about 1,500 regular trading days, we form for every lag L ordered pairs of a…
Social, technological and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the…
Financial transactions constitute connections between entities and through these connections a large scale heterogeneous weighted graph is formulated. In this labyrinth of interactions that are continuously updated, there exists a variety…
We follow the time sequence of binary elastic collisions in a small collection of hard-core particles. Intervals between the collisions are characterized by the numbers of collisions of different pairs in a given time. It was shown…
Given two time series, A and B, sampled asynchronously at different times {t_A_i} and {t_B_j}, termed "ticks", how can one best estimate the correlation coefficient \rho between changes in A and B? We derive a natural, minimum-variance…
Understanding how information flows through the financial networks is important, especially during times of market turbulence. Unlike traditional assumptions where information travels along the shortest paths, real-world diffusion processes…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…
The influence of the past price behaviour on the realized volatility is investigated in the present article. The results show that trending (drifting) prices lead to increased (decreased) realized volatility. This ``volatility induced by…
Human social interactions in local settings can be experimentally detected by recording the physical proximity and orientation of people. Such interactions, approximating face-to-face communications, can be effectively represented as time…
A temporal graph can be considered as a stream of links, each of which represents an interaction between two nodes at a certain time. On temporal graphs, link prediction is a common task, which aims to answer whether the query link is true…
Based on the statistical evaluation of experimental single-vehicle data, we propose a quantitative interpretation of the erratic scattering of flow-density data in synchronized traffic flows. A correlation analysis suggests that the…
It is reported that financial news, especially financial events expressed in news, provide information to investors' long/short decisions and influence the movements of stock markets. Motivated by this, we leverage financial event streams…
We quantify the bullwhip effect (which measures how the variance in replenishment orders is amplified as the orders move up the supply chain) when random demands and random lead times are estimated using the industrially popular moving…
Collective motion of bird flocks can be explained via the hypothesis of many wrongs, and/or, a structured leadership mechanism. In pigeons, previous studies have shown that there is a well-defined hierarchical structure and certain specific…