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Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…
We study a new model where the potential outcomes, corresponding to the values of a (possibly continuous) treatment, are linked through common factors. The factors can be estimated using a panel of regressors. We propose a procedure to…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…
In recurrent event studies, panel binary data arise when subjects are observed at discrete time points and only the recurrent event status within each observation window is recorded. Such data frequently occur in longitudinal studies due to…
Stroke is a major cause of mortality and long--term disability in the world. Predictive outcome models in stroke are valuable for personalized treatment, rehabilitation planning and in controlled clinical trials. In this paper we design a…
Recurrent events often serve as key endpoints in clinical studies but may be prematurely truncated by terminal events such as death, creating selection bias and complicating causal inference. To address this challenge, we develop a Bayesian…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
To investigate whether treating cancer patients with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) would increase the mortality risk, Bennett et al. [Journal of the American Medical Association 299 (2008) 914--924] conducted a meta-analysis with…
We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…
Urban scaling theory posits that urban indicators follow power-law relations with population, yet the evolution of these patterns - and the role of regional differences in settings marked by social inequalities and unplanned urbanization -…
This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…
The research on mortality is an active area of research for any country where the conclusions are driven from the provided data and conditions. The domain knowledge is an essential but not a mandatory skill (though some knowledge is still…
This paper studies the identification of causal effects of a continuous treatment using a new difference-in-difference strategy. Our approach allows for endogeneity of the treatment, and employs repeated cross-sections. It requires an…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…
Macroeconomic conditions influence the environments in which health systems operate, yet their value as leading signals of health system capacity has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we examine whether selected…
In this paper, the panel count data analysis for recurrent events is considered. Such analysis is useful for studying tumor or infection recurrences in both clinical trial and observational studies. A bivariate Gaussian Cox process model is…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
Economic factors can have substantial effects on transportation crash trends. This study makes a comprehensive examination of the relationship between the retail gasoline price (including state and federal fuel taxes) and transportation…