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The influence of per capita income on life expectancy is well documented, mostly through studies of multinational samples. However, one expects fairly weak correlations at both ends of the life span, that is to say in early infancy and in…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…
In a recent article in PNAS, Case and Deaton show a figure illustrating "a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013." The authors state that their…
This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…
Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…
Patient status, angiographic and procedural characteristics encode crucial signals for predicting long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model for assessing the…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…
Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…
We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…
Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…
Multivariate functional data that are cross-sectionally compositional data are attracting increasing interest in the statistical modeling literature, a major example being trajectories over time of compositions derived from cause-specific…
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…