Related papers: Regular conditional distributions of max infinitel…
In extreme value statistics, the peaks-over-threshold method is widely used. The method is based on the generalized Pareto distribution characterizing probabilities of exceedances over high thresholds in $\mathbb {R}^d$. We present a…
We consider the representation of the value of a class of optimal stopping problems of linear diffusions in a linearized form as an expected supremum of a known function. We establish an explicit integral representation of this representing…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for stochastic processes to have almost periodic finite dimensional distributions; in particular, we obtain characterizations for infinitely divisible processes to be almost periodic in terms…
In this paper we complete the full characterization of the expected suprema of infinitely divisible processes. In particular, we remove the technical assumption called $H(C_{0},\delta)$ condition and settle positively the conjecture posed…
We construct stationary max-infinitely divisible (max-id) processes from systems of randomly time-changed L\'evy particles. Classical examples without time change, such as the Brown-Resnick process, are, up to marginal transformations,…
This paper presents an approach for developing the explanation capabilities of rule-based expert systems managing imprecise and uncertain knowledge. The treatment of uncertainty takes place in the framework of possibility theory where the…
Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…
We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…
We study stationary max-stable processes $\{\eta(t)\colon t\in\mathbb R\}$ admitting a representation of the form $\eta(t)=\max_{i\in\mathbb N}(U_i+ Y_i(t))$, where $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \delta_{U_i}$ is a Poisson point process on $\mathbb…
Noncausal, or anticipative, heavy-tailed processes generate trajectories featuring locally explosive episodes akin to speculative bubbles in financial time series data. For $(X_t)$ a two-sided infinite $\alpha$-stable moving average (MA),…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of suprema of dependent Gaussian processes with trend. For different scales of the time horizon we obtain different normalizing functions for the convergence of the maxima.…
In this paper, we develop new optional stopping theorems for scenarios where the stopping rules are defined by bounded continuity regions. Moreover, we establish a wide variety of inequalities on the supremums and infimums of functions of…
This paper derives new maximal inequalities for empirical processes associated with separately exchangeable random arrays. For fixed index dimension $K\ge 1$, we establish a global maximal inequality bounding the $q$-th moment…
In this paper, we study the quasi-stationary behavior of the one-dimensional diffusion process with a regular or exit boundary at 0 and an entrance boundary at $\infty$. By using the Doob's $h$-transform, we show that the conditional…
Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…
The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly 2-dimensional situations. This paper contributes theoretical understanding, physically based models,…
Motivated by applications to prediction and forecasting, we suggest methods for approximating the conditional distribution function of a random variable Y given a dependent random d-vector X. The idea is to estimate not the distribution of…