Related papers: Regular conditional distributions of max infinitel…
This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…
The recent contribution Dieker & Mikosch (2015) [1] obtained important representations of max-stable stationary Brown-Resnick random fields $\zeta_Z$ with a spectral representation determined by a Gaussian process $Z$. With motivations from…
The subcritical Markov branching process X(t) starting with one particle as the initial condition has the ultimate extinction probability q = 1. The branching mechanism in consideration is defined by the mixture of logarithmic distributions…
In this article, we consider a sequence $(N_n)_{n \geq 1}$ of point processes, whose points lie in a subset $E$ of $\bR \verb2\2 \{0\}$, and satisfy an asymptotic independence condition. Our main result gives some necessary and sufficient…
Recent advances in extreme value theory have established $\ell$-Pareto processes as the natural limits for extreme events defined in terms of exceedances of a risk functional. Here we provide methods for the practical modelling of data…
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
Consider a locally finite Dawson-Watanabe superprocess $\xi=(\xi_t)$ in $\mathsf{R}^d$ with $d\geq2$. Our main results include some recursive formulas for the moment measures of $\xi$, with connections to the uniform Brownian tree, a…
In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…
This work defines and investigates the properties of the Max-U-Exp distribution. The method of moments is applied in order to estimate its parameters. Then, by using the previous general theory about Mixed Poisson processes, developed by…
We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if…
The kinematics and dynamics of deterministic physical systems have been a foundation of our understanding of the world since Galileo and Newton. For real systems, however, uncertainty is largely present via external forces such as friction…
We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…
We study existence of random elements with partially specified distributions. The technique relies on the existence of a positive extension for linear functionals accompanied by additional conditions that ensure the regularity of the…
In this article we get simple explicit formulas for $\Exp\sup_{s\leq t}X(s)$ where $X$ is a spectrally positive or negative L\'evy process with infinite variation. As a consequence we derive a generalization of the well-known formula for…
In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
Here we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the convergence to a random max infinitely divisible law from that of a random maximum. We then discuss random max-stable laws, their domain of max-attraction and the associated extremal…