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We present a simple model that recalls two different patterns depending on the temperature. To realize a change in recall pattern due to temperature change, we embed two patterns to different graphs: the first pattern into a fully connected…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…
Experimentally observed networks of interacting dynamical systems are inferred from recorded multivariate time series by evaluating a statistical measure of dependence, usually the cross-correlation coefficient, or mutual information. These…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…
Oscillations arise in many real-world systems and are associated with both functional and dysfunctional states. Whether a network can oscillate can be estimated if we know the strength of interaction between nodes. But in real-world…
As individuals communicate, their exchanges form a dynamic network. We demonstrate, using time series analysis of communication in three online settings, that network structure alone can be highly revealing of the diversity and novelty of…
Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…
A new network model is proposed to describe the $1/f^\alpha$ resistance noise in disordered materials for a wide range of $\alpha$ values ($0< \alpha < 2$). More precisely, we have considered the resistance fluctuations of a thin resistor…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward…
General atmospheric circulation is the system of atmospheric motions over the Earth on the scale of the whole globe. Two main types of circulation have been identified: zonal - characterized by low amplitude waves in the troposphere moving…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…
We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…
Extracting useful information from data is a fundamental challenge across disciplines as diverse as climate, neuroscience, genetics, and ecology. In the era of ``big data'', data is ubiquitous, but appropriated methods are needed for…
We explore the interplay of network structure, topology, and dynamic interactions between nodes using the paradigm of distributed synchronization in a network of coupled oscillators. As the network evolves to a global steady state,…
In this work we investigate the global activity patterns predicted from a model active region heated by distributions of nanoflares that have a range of frequencies. What differs is the average frequency of the distributions. The activity…
Abrupt changes of behaviour in complex networks can be triggered by a single node. This work describes the dynamical fundamentals of how the behaviour of one node affects the whole network formed by coupled phase-oscillators with…