Related papers: The Evolution of the Cuban HIV/AIDS Network
In this paper, we construct a model to describe the transmission of HIV in a homogeneous host population. By considering the specific mechanism of HIV, we derive a model structured in three successive stages: (i) primary infection, (ii)…
With the launch of second line anti-retroviral therapy for HIV infected individuals, there has been an increased expectation on surviving period of people with HIV. We consider previously well-known models in HIV epidemiology where the…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
Human Papillomavirus infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection, and causes serious complications such as cervical cancer in vulnerable female populations in regions such as East Africa. Due to the scarcity of empirical…
Many dynamic processes on complex networks, from disease outbreaks to cascading failures, can rapidly accelerate once a critical threshold is exceeded, potentially leading to severe social and economic costs. Therefore, in order to develop…
In this paper we study the household-structure SIS epidemic spreading on general complex networks. The household structure gives us the way to distinguish inner and the outer infection rate. Unlike household-structure models on homogenous…
We describe how to generate a heterosexual network with a prescribed joint-degree distribution that is embedded in a prescribed large-scale social contact network. The structure of a sexual network plays an important role in how sexually…
Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…
Recent clinical studies have shown that HIV disease pathogenesis can depend strongly on many factors at the time of transmission, including the strength of the initial viral load and the local availability of CD4+ T-cells. In this article,…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
We revisit the SICA (Susceptible-Infectious-Chronic-AIDS) mathematical model for transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with varying population size in a homogeneously mixing population. We consider SICA models…
We consider a time-delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with education dissemination and study the asymptotic dynamics of solutions as well as the asymptotic behavior of the endemic equilibrium with respect to the amount of information…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
The expansion of tools against HIV transmission has brought increased interest in epidemiological models that can predict the impact of these interventions. The EMOD-HIV model was recently compared to eleven other independently developed…
The United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a target to ensure that 15 million HIV-positive people in the world would be receiving combination anti-retroviral treatment (ART) by 2015. This target is likely to be reached…
The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and…