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New results on conditional joint probability distributions of first exit times are presented for a continuous-time stochastic process defined as the mixture of Markov jump processes moving at different speeds on the same finite state space,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-19 B. A. Surya

With ever-increasing amounts of online information available, modeling and predicting individual preferences-for books or articles, for example-is becoming more and more important. Good predictions enable us to improve advice to users, and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-02-06 Antonia Godoy-Lorite , Roger Guimera , Cristopher Moore , Marta Sales-Pardo

We start with the idea that open quantum systems can be used to represent financial markets by modelling events from the external environment and their impact on the market price. We show how to characterize distinct orbits of the time…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-05 Will Hicks

This paper examines a trade execution game for two large traders in a generalized price impact model. We incorporate a stochastic and sequentially dependent factor that exogenously affects the market price into financial markets. Our model…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-14 Masamitsu Ohnishi , Makoto Shimoshimizu

This paper develops a new methodology for studying continuous-time Nash equilibrium in a financial market with asymmetrically informed agents. This approach allows us to lift the restriction of risk neutrality imposed on market makers by…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-05 Umut Çetin , Albina Danilova

A novel framework for the analysis of observation statistics on time discrete linear evolutions in Banach space is presented. The model differs from traditional models for stochastic processes and, in particular, clearly distinguishes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-24 Ulrich Faigle , Gerhard Gierz

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

Flowgraph models provide an alternative approach in modeling a multi-state stochastic process. One of the most widely used stochastic processes that have many real-world applications especially in actuarial models is the Markov jump process…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-07 Muhammad Fikri Budiana , Murwan H. M. A. Siddig

Existence of stochastic financial equilibria giving rise to semimartingale asset prices is established under a general class of assumptions. These equilibria are expressed in real terms and span complete markets or markets with withdrawal…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Gordan Zitkovic

Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 V. Gontis

In this paper we study progressive filtration expansions with c\`adl\`ag processes. Using results from the theory of the weak convergence of $\sigma$-fields, we first establish a semimartingale convergence theorem. Then we apply it in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-18 Younes Kchia , Philip Protter

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Bhaskara Marthi , Hanna Pasula , Stuart Russell , Yuval Peres

We model continuous-time information flows generated by a number of information sources that switch on and off at random times. By modulating a multi-dimensional L\'evy random bridge over a random point field, our framework relates the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-14 Edward Hoyle , Andrea Macrina , Levent A. Mengütürk

This paper is the first part of a series of papers on filtering for partially observed jump diffusions satisfying a stochastic differential equation driven by Wiener processes and Poisson martingale measures. The coefficients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 Fabian Germ , István Gyöngy

We study scaling limits of non-increasing Markov chains with values in the set of non-negative integers, under the assumption that the large jump events are rare and happen at rates that behave like a negative power of the current state. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-06 Bénédicte Haas , Grégory Miermont

Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 David Roberts , Trevor McCourt , Geremia Massarelli , Jeremy Rothschild , Nahuel Freitas

Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models with a wide range of applications in biochemistry, ecology, and epidemiology, and are often complex to analyze. Except for some special cases, it is generally difficult to predict how the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Daniele Cappelletti , Giulio Cuniberti , Paola Siri

This paper considers stochastic-constrained stochastic optimization where the stochastic constraint is to satisfy that the expectation of a random function is below a certain threshold. In particular, we study the setting where data samples…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Yeongjong Kim , Dabeen Lee

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith

The growing attention on cryptocurrencies has led to increasing research on digital stock markets. Approaches and tools usually applied to characterize standard stocks have been applied to the digital ones. Among these tools is the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-16 Tanya Araújo , Paulo Barbosa