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The Hawkes process is a self-exciting sample point process. It has wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. With the development of storage technology, data-driven models are attracting…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-19 Emmanuel Bacry , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

We consider a multivariate non-linear Hawkes process in a multi-class setup where particles are organised within two populations of possibly different sizes, such that one of the populations acts excitatory on the system while the other…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Mads Bonde Raad , Eva Löcherbach

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

Hawkes point processes are first-order non-Markovian stochastic models of intermittent bursty dynamics with applications to physical, seismic, epidemic, biological, financial, and social systems. While accounting for positive feedback loops…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-02-02 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

We introduce a nonlinear modification of the classical Hawkes process, which allows inhibitory couplings between units without restrictions. The resulting system of interacting point processes provides a useful mathematical model for…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-03 Stefano Cardanobile , Stefan Rotter

Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Mikola C. Schlottke

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Gordon J. Ross , Dean Markwick

The aim of this paper is to get asymptotic deviation bounds via a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for cumulative processes also known as compound renewal processes or renewal-reward processes. These processes cumulate independent random…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Patrick Cattiaux , Laetitia Colombani , Manon Costa

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

In this paper, we study law of large numbers, central limit theorem, large and moderate deviations for INAR($\infty$) processes, which as a special case, includes both discrete-time linear Hawkes process and INAR(1) process in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Nian Yao

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender