Related papers: Temporal statistical analysis on human article cre…
In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are…
Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like…
We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between…
A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…
An original cross sectional dataset referring to a medium sized Italian university is implemented in order to analyze the determinants of scientific research production at individual level. The dataset includes 942 permanent researchers of…
Skewness and kurtosis are fundamental statistical moments commonly used to quantify asymmetry and tail behavior in probability distributions. Despite their widespread application in statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, and…
Temporal editing patterns on Wikipedia provide a unique computational lens to explore cultural dynamics across linguistic communities. This study analyses over a decade of editorial activity (2001-2010) across eleven Wikipedia language…
Many time series produced by complex systems are empirically found to follow power-law distributions with different exponents $\alpha$. By permuting the independently drawn samples from a power-law distribution, we present non-trivial…
The effects of saving and spending patterns on holding time distribution of money are investigated based on the ideal gas-like models. We show the steady-state distribution obeys an exponential law when the saving factor is set uniformly,…
We review briefly the concepts underlying complex systems and probability distributions. The later are often taken as the first quantitative characteristics of complex systems, allowing one to detect the possible occurrence of regularities…
The heavy-tailed inter-event time distributions are widely observed in many human-activated systems, which may result from both endogenous mechanisms like the highest-priority-first protocol and exogenous factors like the varying global…
We consider a two-dimensional time-inhomogeneous birth-death process to model the time-evolution of fake news in a population. The two components of the process represent, respectively, (i) the number of individuals (say spreaders) who know…
Motivated by a host of empirical evidences revealing the bursty character of human dynamics, we develop a model of human activity based on successive switching between an hesitation state and a decision-realization state, with residency…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…
Starting from the model of continuous time random walk, we focus our interest on random walks in which the probability distributions of the waiting times and jumps have fat tails characterized by power laws with exponent between 0 and 1 for…
A generic model of stochastic autocatalytic dynamics with many degrees of freedom $w_i$ $i=1,...,N$ is studied using computer simulations. The time evolution of the $w_i$'s combines a random multiplicative dynamics $w_i(t+1) = \lambda…
We study the relaxation response of a social system after endogenous and exogenous bursts of activity using the time-series of daily views for nearly 5 million videos on YouTube. We find that most activity can be described accurately as a…
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…
Academic papers have been the protagonists in disseminating expertise. Naturally, paper citation pattern analysis is an efficient and essential way of investigating the knowledge structure of science and technology. For decades, it has been…