Related papers: Extreme value laws in dynamical systems under phys…
The problem of estimating return levels of river discharge, relevant in flood frequency analysis, is tackled by relying on the extreme value theory. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is assumed to model annual maxima values…
We characterize the extreme points of the set of incentive-compatible mechanisms for screening problems with linear utility. Our framework subsumes problems with and without transfers, such as monopoly pricing, principal-optimal bilateral…
Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
The block maxima approach is an important method in univariate extreme value analysis. While assuming that block maxima are independent results in straightforward analysis, the resulting inferences maybe invalid when a series of block…
Let $(X_{n,i})_{1\le i\le n,n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a triangular array of row-wise stationary $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued random variables. We use a "blocks method" to define clusters of extreme values: the rows of $(X_{n,i})$ are divided into $m_n$…
A major issue of extreme value analysis is the determination of the shape parameter $\xi$ common to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which drives the tail behavior, and is of major impact on the…
We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we…
This paper establishes limit theorems and quantitative statistical stability for a class of piecewise partially hyperbolic maps that are not necessarily continuous nor locally invertible. By employing a flexible functional-analytic…
The analysis of seasonal or annual block maxima is of interest in fields such as hydrology, climatology or meteorology. In connection with the celebrated method of block maxima, we study several tests that can be used to assess whether the…
We study the extreme value distribution of stochastic processes modeled by superstatistics. Classical extreme value theory asserts that (under mild asymptotic independence assumptions) only three possible limit distributions are possible,…
Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…
Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…
We review some applications of central limit theorems and extreme values statistics in the context of disordered systems. We discuss several problems, in particular concerning Random Matrix Theory and the generalisation of the Tracy-Widom…
Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…
We give a complete expansion, at any accuracy order, for the iterated convolution of a complex valued integrable sequence in one space dimension. The remainders are estimated sharply with generalized Gaussian bounds. The result applies in…
The study of chaotic systems, where rare events play a pivotal role, is essential for understanding complex dynamics due to their sensitivity to initial conditions. Recently, tools from large deviation theory, typically applied in the…
Within the class of nonlinear hyperbolic balance laws posed on a curved spacetime (endowed with a volume form), we identify a hyperbolic balance law that enjoys the same Lorentz invariance property as the one satisfied by the Euler…
This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…
Modeling univariate block maxima by the generalized extreme value distribution constitutes one of the most widely applied approaches in extreme value statistics. It has recently been found that, for an underlying stationary time series,…