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Given samples from a distribution, how many new elements should we expect to find if we continue sampling this distribution? This is an important and actively studied problem, with many applications ranging from unseen species estimation to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-14 Aditi Raghunathan , Greg Valiant , James Zou

Let $S$ be a finite set, and $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ an i.i.d. uniform sample from $S$. To estimate the size $|S|$, without further structure, one can wait for repeats and use the birthday problem. This requires a sample size of the order…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Sourav Chatterjee , Persi Diaconis , Susan Holmes

We propose a modern method to estimate population size based on capture-recapture designs of K samples. The observed data is formulated as a sample of n i.i.d. K-dimensional vectors of binary indicators, where the k-th component of each…

The increasing interest in subpopulation analysis has led to the development of various new trial designs and analysis methods in the fields of personalized medicine and targeted therapies. In this paper, subpopulations are defined in terms…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 Roland Gerard Gera , Tim Friede

A finite set is "hidden" if its elements are not directly enumerable or if its size cannot be ascertained via a deterministic query. In public health, epidemiology, demography, ecology and intelligence analysis, researchers have developed a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-17 Si Cheng , Daniel J. Eck , Forrest W. Crawford

We present a new design and inference method for estimating population size of a hidden population best reached through a link-tracing design. The strategy involves the Rao-Blackwell Theorem applied to a sufficient statistic markedly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-26 Kyle Vincent , Steve Thompson

We wish to estimate the total number of classes in a population based on sample counts, especially in the presence of high latent diversity. Drawing on probability theory that characterizes distributions on the integers by ratios of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 A. Willis , J. Bunge

I present a critical review of techniques for estimating confidence intervals on binomial population proportions inferred from success counts in small-to-intermediate samples. Population proportions arise frequently as quantities of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 Ewan Cameron

Estimation of the population size $n$ from $k$ i.i.d.\ binomial observations with unknown success probability $p$ is relevant to a multitude of applications and has a long history. Without additional prior information this is a notoriously…

In microbiome studies, it is of interest to use a sample from a population of microbes, such as the gut microbiota community, to estimate the population proportion of these taxa. However, due to biases introduced in sampling and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-11 Roulan Jiang , Xiang Zhan , Tianying Wang

Estimating the number $n$ of unseen species from a $k-$sample displaying only $p\leq k$ distinct sampled species has received attention for long. It requires a model of species abundance together with a sampling model. We start with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-16 Thierry Huillet , Servet Martinez

Population dynamics models play an important role in a number of fields, such as actuarial science, demography, and ecology, as they help explain past fluctuations and predict future population. The accuracy of these models is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Paolo Onorati , Sofia Ruiz-Suarez , Radu Craiu

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Junheng Ma , Joe Sedransk , Balgobin Nandram , Lu Chen

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and inference in hard-to-reach human populations. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-28 Mark S. Handcock , Krista J. Gile , Corinne M. Mar

Although the specification of bivariate probability models using a collection of assumed conditional distributions is not a novel concept, it has received considerable attention in the last decade. In this study, a bivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-20 Indranil Ghosh , Mina Norouzirad , Filipe J. Marques

Population size estimation based on capture-recapture experiment under triple record system is an interesting problem in various fields including epidemiology, population studies, etc. In many real life scenarios, there exists inherent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Kiranmoy Chatterjee , Prajamitra Bhuyan

Recovery of population size history from molecular sequence data is an important problem in population genetics. Inference commonly relies on a coalescent model linking the population size history to genealogies. The high computational cost…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-17 James E. Johndrow , Julia A. Palacios

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen

Estimation of population size using incomplete lists (also called the capture-recapture problem) has a long history across many biological and social sciences. For example, human rights and other groups often construct partial and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Manjari Das , Edward H. Kennedy , Nicholas P. Jewell

In this paper, we study the classical problem of estimating the proportion of a finite population. First, we consider a fixed sample size method and derive an explicit sample size formula which ensures a mixed criterion of absolute and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-02-03 Xinjia Chen