Related papers: Keynesian Economics After All
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented, publicly-available battle deaths datasets, using new…
This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…
We demonstrate using multi-layered networks, the existence of an empirical linkage between the dynamics of the financial network constructed from the market indices and the macroeconomic networks constructed from macroeconomic variables…
The first part of this paper is a brief survey of the approaches to economic inequality based on ideas from statistical physics and kinetic theory. These include the Boltzmann kinetic equation, the time-reversal symmetry, the ergodicity…
There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular:…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
Using the similar formulas of the preference relation and the utility function, we propose the confidence relations and the corresponding influence functions that represent various interacting strengths of different families, cliques and…
We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…
The subject of this study is inflation, a problem that has plagued America and the world over the last several decades. Despite a rich trove of scholarly studies and a wide range of tools developed to deal with inflation, we are nowhere…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…
Economics does not need a scientific revolution. Economics needs accurate measurements according to high standards of natural sciences and meticulous work on revealing empirical relationships between measured variables.
The state of economic theory and accumulated facts from the different branches of the economic science require to analyze the concept of the description of economy systems. The economic reality generates the problems the solution of that is…
The Hicks induced innovation hypothesis states that a price increase of a production factor is a spur to invention. We propose an alternative hypothesis restating that a spur to invention require not only an increase of one factor but also…
We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…
In many European countries the growth of the real GDP per capita has been linear since 1950. An explanation for this linearity is still missing. We propose that in artificial intelligence we may find models for a linear growth of…
Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the center of policy, market, and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the current AI wave is captured in US…
Recent studies highlight economic complexity's role in mitigating fiscal crises, often measured via an economy's trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of an economy's structure and omits critical innovative activities like…
Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the…
This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic…
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock…