Related papers: Keynesian Economics After All
A pervasive trend in economic development is the shift from agricultural to manufacturing and finally to service economies. Because the type of employment associated with each sector influences natural resource use this global trend may…
Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
This paper examines the monetary policies the Federal Reserve implemented in response to the Global Financial Crisis. More specifically, it analyzes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) programs, liquidity facilities, and forward…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
A standard growth model is modified in a straightforward way to incorporate what Keynes (1936) suggests in the "essence" of his general theory. The theoretical essence is the idea that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in…
Public finances are one of the fundamental mechanisms of economic governance that refer to the financial activities and decisions made by government entities to fund public services, projects, and operations through assets. In today's…
The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities…
In a New Keynesian model where the trade-off between stabilising the aggregate inflation rate and the output gap arises from sectoral asymmetries, the gains from commitment are either zero or negligible. Thus, to the extent that economic…
In this work, the time chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is analyzed and approach of recession time term is predicted, which may be hallmark of a worldwide economic crisis. However, the methods used for the prediction will…
It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is a…
Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best,…
Analysis of wars and conflicts between regions has been an important topic of interest throughout the history of humankind. In the latter part of the 20th century, in the aftermath of two World Wars and the shadow of nuclear, biological,…
At the zero lower bound, the New Keynesian model predicts that output and inflation collapse to implausibly low levels, and that government spending and forward guidance have implausibly large effects. To resolve these anomalies, we…
This research studies the relation between money and prices and its practical implications analyzing quarterly data from United States (1959-2022), Canada (1961-2022), United Kingdom (1986-2022), and Brazil (1996-2022). The historical,…
It is widely assumed that increases in economic productivity necessarily lead to economic growth. In this paper, it is shown that this is not always the case. An idealized model of an economy is presented in which a new technology allows…
How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, even transitory government debt expansions can exert upward pressure on interest rates and create inflation. As I…
General equilibrium is the dominant theoretical framework for economic policy analysis at the level of the whole economy. In practice, general equilibrium treats economies as being always in equilibrium, albeit in a sequence of equilibria…
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This…
Could John Kerry have gained votes in the 2004 Presidential election by more clearly distinguishing himself from George Bush on economic policy? At first thought, the logic of political preferences would suggest not: the Republicans are to…