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A simple approach for modeling multivariate extremes is to consider the vector of component-wise maxima and their max-stable distributions. The extremal dependence can be inferred by estimating the angular measure or, alternatively, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-03 Giulia Marcon , Simone A. Padoan , Antoniano-Villalobos

A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Bingjing Tang , Julia Palacios

We develop Gaussian approximations for high-dimensional vectors formed by second-order $U$- and $V$-statistics whose kernels depend on sample size under independent but not identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) sampling. Our results hold…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Shunsuke Imai

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Tobias Schwedes , Ben Calderhead

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

Analytical templates for the covariance matrix of the 4-Point Correlation Function (4PCF) have been developed in the past assuming a Gaussian Random Field (GRF). In this work, we present the first non-Gaussian calculation of the 4PCF…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-09 William Ortolá Leonard , Zachary Slepian

A very important property of a statistical distribution is to know whether it obeys Gaussian statistics or not. On the one hand, it is of paramount importance in the context of CMB anisotropy studies, since deviations from a Gaussian…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-31 N. Aghanim , O. Forni , F. R. Bouchet

Given $iid$ observations from an unknown absolute continuous distribution defined on some domain $\Omega$, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Dangna Li , Kun Yang , Wing Hung Wong

Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-21 Shota Gugushvili , Ester Mariucci , Frank van der Meulen

Rare event probability estimation is an important topic in reliability analysis. Stochastic methods, such as importance sampling, have been developed to estimate such probabilities but they often fail in high dimension. In this paper, we…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-24 Maxime El-Masri , Jérôme Morio , Florian Simatos

We present projections for reconstruction of the inflationary potential expected from ESA's upcoming Planck Surveyor CMB mission. We focus on the effects that tensor perturbations and the presence of non-Gaussianities have on reconstruction…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Brian A. Powell , Konstantinos Tzirakis , William H. Kinney

Geometric characteristics of random fields are exploited to test the consistency of density perturbation model spectra with COBE data. These CMB maps are analyzed using the number of anisotropy hot spots and their boundary curvature. CMB…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-02-03 Sergio Torres

We introduce a framework to derive quantitative central limit theorems in the context of non-linear approximation of Gaussian random variables taking values in a separable Hilbert space. In particular, our method provides an alternative to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Solesne Bourguin , Simon Campese

We present a quantum algorithm for efficiently sampling transformed Gaussian random fields on $d$-dimensional domains, based on an enhanced version of the classical moving average method. Pointwise transformations enforcing boundedness are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-20 Matthias Deiml , Daniel Peterseim

In many applications, such as economics, operations research and reinforcement learning, one often needs to estimate a multivariate regression function f subject to a convexity constraint. For example, in sequential decision processes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-09-05 Lauren A. Hannah , David B. Dunson

The detection of non-Gaussianity in the CMB data would rule out a number of inflationary models. A null detection of non-Gaussianity, instead, would exclude alternative models for the early universe. Thus, a detection or non-detection of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2010-09-15 A. Bernui , M. J. Rebouças , A. F. F. Teixeira

We prove a multivariate central limit theorem for the numbers of critical points above a level with all possible indexes of a non-necessarily isotropic Gaussian random field. In particular, we discuss the non-degeneracy of the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-04 Jean-Marc Azaïs , Federico Dalmao , Céline Delmas

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression…

We numerically investigate the distribution of extrema of 'chaotic' Laplacian eigenfunctions on two-dimensional manifolds. Our contribution is two-fold: (a) we count extrema on grid graphs with a small number of randomly added edges and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-12-09 Florian Pausinger , Stefan Steinerberger