Related papers: Approximate group context tree
We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…
We consider the convergence of a continuous-time Markov chain approximation X^h, h>0, to an R^d-valued Levy process X. The state space of X^h is an equidistant lattice and its Q-matrix is chosen to approximate the generator of X. In…
By introducing a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), the longest internal suffix, precise characterizations of existence and uniqueness of a stationary probability measure for a VLMC…
We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…
We consider the problem of uniformly generating a spanning tree, of a connected undirected graph. This process is useful to compute statistics, namely for phylogenetic trees. We describe a Markov chain for producing these trees. For cycle…
Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…
We consider a class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes where the state evolves according to a linear dynamical system. This continuous time evolution is interspersed by discrete events that occur at random times and change (reset)…
We introduce a sound and complete equational theory capturing equivalence of discrete probabilistic programs, that is, programs extended with primitives for Bernoulli distributions and conditioning, to model distributions over finite sets…
In the context of Markov decision processes running in continuous time, one of the most intriguing challenges is the efficient approximation of finite horizon reachability objectives. A multitude of sophisticated model checking algorithms…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…
Iterative load balancing algorithms for indivisible tokens have been studied intensively in the past. Complementing previous worst-case analyses, we study an average-case scenario where the load inputs are drawn from a fixed probability…
A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…
A new approach is developed for evaluating the convergence rate for nonlinear Markov chains (MC) based on the recently developed spectral radius technique of markovian coupling for linear MC and the idea of small nonlinear perturbations of…
In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…
When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…
We consider deep multivariate models for heterogeneous collections of random variables. In the context of computer vision, such collections may e.g. consist of images, segmentations, image attributes, and latent variables. When developing…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
We study ergodic properties of some Markov chains models in random environments when the random Markov kernels that define the dynamic satisfy some usual drift and small set conditions but with random coefficients. In particular, we adapt a…
Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…
We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…