Related papers: Parametric inference and forecasting in continuous…
We consider smooth linear statistics of determinantal point processes on the complex plane, and their large scale asymptotics. We prove asymptotic normality in the finite variance case, where Soshnikov's theorem is not applicable. The…
A standard approach to computing expectations with respect to a given target measure is to introduce an overdamped Langevin equation which is reversible with respect to the target distribution, and to approximate the expectation by a…
We propose a provably stabilizing and tractable approach for control of constrained linear systems under intermittent observations and unreliable transmissions of control commands. A smart sensor equipped with a Kalman filter is employed…
In this paper, we present a framework for Stability Analysis of Systems of Coupled Linear Partial-Differential Equations. The class of PDE systems considered in this paper includes parabolic, elliptic and hyperbolic systems with Dirichelet,…
We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
This paper studies the uniformly asymptotic stability of nonautonomous systems on Riemannian manifolds. We establish corresponding Lyapunov-type theorems (Theorems 2.1 and 2.2), extending classical Euclidean results (e.g., [9, Theorems 4.9…
We consider a stochastic volatility asset price model in which the volatility is the absolute value of a continuous Gaussian process with arbitrary prescribed mean and covariance. By exhibiting a Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion for the…
We consider the inverse Ising problem, i.e. the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the…
Based on discrete observations, we develop a test to infer if the volatility function $\sigma(\cdot)$ within the nonparametric Gaussian white noise model $dY_t = \sigma(t)dW_t$ is constant. The testing procedure is shown to be…
Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local…
Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…
We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and (ii) the variance of the measurement error is undetermined…
In Part II of this paper, we concentrate our analysis on the price dynamical model with the moving average rules developed in Part I of this paper. By decomposing the excessive demand function, we reveal that it is the interplay between…
Asymptotic equivalence theory developed in the literature so far are only for bounded loss functions. This limits the potential applications of the theory because many commonly used loss functions in statistical inference are unbounded. In…
In this paper, we are concerned with nonparametric inference on the volatility of volatility process in stochastic volatility models. We construct several estimators for its integrated version in a high-frequency setting, all based on…
This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…