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This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-03 Michael Wood

The bifurcation diagram of a model nonlinear Langevin equation with delayed feedback is obtained numerically. We observe both direct and oscillatory bifurcations in different ranges of model parameters. Below threshold, the stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-10-27 Francoise Lepine , Jorge Vinals

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust…

This paper studies the threshold estimation of a TAR model when the underlying threshold parameter is a random variable. It is shown that the Bayesian estimator is consistent and its limit distribution is expressed in terms of a limit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-22 Ngai Hang Chan , Yury A. Kutoyants

In this paper, we study the estimation of the threshold predictive regression model with hybrid stochastic local unit root predictors. We demonstrate the estimation procedure and derive the asymptotic distribution of the least square…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-16 Christis Katsouris

This article considers a novel and widely applicable approach to modeling high-dimensional dependent data when a large number of explanatory variables are available and the signal-to-noise ratio is low. We postulate that a $p$-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-09 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S. Tsay

Linear regression models have been extensively considered in the literature. However, in some practical applications they may not be appropriate all over the range of the covariate. In this paper, a more flexible model is introduced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-19 Graciela Boente , Florencia Leonardi , Daniela Rodriguez , Mariela Sued

We consider a new criterion-based approach to model selection in linear regression. Properties of selection criteria based on p-values of a likelihood ratio statistic are studied for families of linear regression models. We prove that such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-21 Piotr Pokarowski , Jan Mielniczuk , Paweł Teisseyre

The estimation of an f-divergence between two probability distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Most works study this problem under very weak assumptions, in which case it is provably…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-25 Paul K. Rubenstein , Olivier Bousquet , Josip Djolonga , Carlos Riquelme , Ilya Tolstikhin

Significance testing based on p-values has been implicated in the reproducibility crisis in scientific research, with one of the proposals being to eliminate them in favor of Bayesian analyses. Defenders of the p-values have countered that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-02 Christos Argyropoulos , Andy P Grieve

The two-trials rule in drug regulation requires statistically significant results from two pivotal trials to demonstrate efficacy. However, it is unclear how the effect estimates from both trials should be combined to quantify the drug…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Samuel Pawel , Małgorzata Roos , Leonhard Held

Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Enrico Bibbona , Susanne Ditlevsen

In a Phase II dose-finding study with a placebo control, a new drug with several dose levels is compared with a placebo to test for the effectiveness of the new drug. The main focus of such studies often lies in the characterization of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Saswati Saha , Werner Brannath

Convergence results for averages of independent replications of counting processes are established in a $p$-variation setting and under certain assumptions. Such convergence results can be combined with functional differentiability results…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-12 Morten Overgaard

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-04 Gianluca Rosso

In contrast to its common definition and calculation, interpretation of p-values diverges among statisticians. Since p-value is the basis of various methodologies, this divergence has led to a variety of test methodologies and evaluations…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-27 Tomokazu Konishi

Covariance function estimation is a fundamental task in multivariate functional data analysis and arises in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimating sparse covariance functions for high-dimensional functional data, where the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-15 Qin Fang , Shaojun Guo , Xinghao Qiao

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

A/B testing is ubiquitous within the machine learning and data science operations of internet companies. Generically, the idea is to perform a statistical test of the hypothesis that a new feature is better than the existing platform---for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 David Goldberg , James E. Johndrow

Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-11 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba
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